AES
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The AES Corporation (AES) closed at $14.10 as of 2026-03-20, trading 12.8% below its 200-week moving average of $16.17. This places AES in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -12.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 52, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 14 weeks, down-weeks have had more trading volume than up-weeks (0.52 buyers-vs-sellers ratio). That means when people are active, they're more often selling than buying. Sellers are still more in control than buyers.
Over the past 1764 weeks of data, AES has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times. On average, these episodes lasted 32 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AES at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +16.1%.
With a market cap of $10.0 billion, AES is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 2.0%. The stock trades at 2.5x book value.
Share count has increased 6.5% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AES would have grown to $516, compared to $2683 for the S&P 500. AES has returned 5.1% annualized vs 10.4% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AES vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AES Crosses Below the Line?
Across 22 historical episodes, buying AES when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +18.5% after 12 months (median +13.0%), compared to +17.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 64% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +66.7% vs +38.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AES crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
AES has crossed below its 200-week MA 23 times with an average 1-year return of +16.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1992 | Dec 1992 | 29 | 37.2% | +9.2% | +404.8% |
| Apr 1994 | Jun 1994 | 9 | 10.2% | -6.5% | +393.4% |
| Jul 1994 | Sep 1994 | 12 | 14.1% | +13.5% | +395.1% |
| Nov 1994 | Nov 1994 | 1 | 1.1% | +13.9% | +390.9% |
| Dec 1994 | Dec 1994 | 1 | 1.2% | +18.1% | +390.9% |
| Jan 1995 | Jun 1995 | 22 | 10.8% | +21.1% | +397.9% |
| Aug 1998 | Sep 1998 | 1 | 1.8% | +154.1% | +82.2% |
| Aug 2001 | Dec 2004 | 175 | 96.1% | -94.0% | -35.2% |
| Mar 2008 | Apr 2008 | 4 | 7.8% | -60.1% | +37.4% |
| Jul 2008 | Jan 2012 | 182 | 70.8% | -36.4% | +25.6% |
| Aug 2012 | Feb 2013 | 26 | 14.2% | +13.1% | +94.0% |
| Jun 2013 | Jun 2013 | 1 | 3.3% | +34.7% | +90.4% |
| Jan 2015 | Mar 2015 | 7 | 4.5% | -19.7% | +75.3% |
| Aug 2015 | Jun 2016 | 44 | 30.0% | +6.0% | +74.4% |
| Oct 2016 | May 2017 | 33 | 6.4% | +0.6% | +73.5% |
| Jun 2017 | Jan 2018 | 30 | 9.5% | +16.2% | +68.7% |
| Jan 2018 | Mar 2018 | 8 | 7.9% | +56.2% | +71.6% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 8.1% | +129.2% | +48.4% |
| Apr 2020 | Jun 2020 | 8 | 8.9% | +127.5% | +37.0% |
| May 2023 | Jul 2023 | 6 | 4.4% | +9.4% | -19.1% |
| Jul 2023 | May 2024 | 41 | 40.7% | -9.3% | -18.2% |
| Jun 2024 | Feb 2026 | 88 | 48.6% | -42.2% | -22.2% |
| Mar 2026 | Ongoing | 3+ | 12.8% | Ongoing | -0.4% |
| Average | 32 | — | +16.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AES below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-03-20, The AES Corporation (AES) is trading 12.8% below its 200-week moving average of $16.17. The current price is $14.10.
What is AES's 200-week moving average price?
The AES Corporation's 200-week moving average is $16.17 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AES drops below its 200-week moving average?
AES has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +16.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 32 weeks on average.
Is AES a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AES as of 2026-03-20: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 52. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 2.0%. Price-to-book is 2.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AES compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.2 years, $100 invested in AES would have grown to $516, compared to $2683 for the S&P 500. That's 5.1% annualized vs 10.4% for the index. AES has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does AES pay a dividend?
Yes. The AES Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 499.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20