AES
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The AES Corporation (AES) closed at $16.05 as of 2026-02-02, trading 1.3% below its 200-week moving average of $16.25. This places AES in the below line zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -11.1% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 73, AES is in overbought territory.
Over the past 1758 weeks of data, AES has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times. On average, these episodes lasted 33 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AES at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +18.9%.
With a market cap of $11.4 billion, AES is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 5.1%. The stock trades at 3.0x book value.
Share count has increased 6.6% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AES would have grown to $587, compared to $2849 for the S&P 500. AES has returned 5.5% annualized vs 10.6% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: AES vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AES Crosses Below the Line?
Across 22 historical episodes, buying AES when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +18.5% after 12 months (median +13.0%), compared to +17.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 64% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +66.7% vs +38.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AES crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
AES has crossed below its 200-week MA 22 times with an average 1-year return of +18.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1992 | Dec 1992 | 29 | 37.2% | +9.2% | +474.6% |
| Apr 1994 | Jun 1994 | 9 | 10.2% | -6.5% | +461.6% |
| Jul 1994 | Sep 1994 | 12 | 14.1% | +13.5% | +463.6% |
| Nov 1994 | Nov 1994 | 1 | 1.1% | +13.9% | +458.8% |
| Dec 1994 | Dec 1994 | 1 | 1.2% | +18.1% | +458.8% |
| Jan 1995 | Jun 1995 | 22 | 10.8% | +21.1% | +466.7% |
| Aug 1998 | Sep 1998 | 1 | 1.8% | +154.1% | +107.4% |
| Aug 2001 | Dec 2004 | 175 | 96.1% | -94.0% | -26.2% |
| Mar 2008 | Apr 2008 | 4 | 7.8% | -60.1% | +56.4% |
| Jul 2008 | Jan 2012 | 182 | 70.8% | -36.4% | +43.0% |
| Aug 2012 | Feb 2013 | 26 | 14.2% | +13.1% | +120.8% |
| Jun 2013 | Jun 2013 | 1 | 3.3% | +34.7% | +116.8% |
| Jan 2015 | Mar 2015 | 7 | 4.5% | -19.7% | +99.6% |
| Aug 2015 | Jun 2016 | 44 | 30.0% | +6.0% | +98.5% |
| Oct 2016 | May 2017 | 33 | 6.4% | +0.6% | +97.5% |
| Jun 2017 | Jan 2018 | 30 | 9.5% | +16.2% | +92.1% |
| Jan 2018 | Mar 2018 | 8 | 7.9% | +56.2% | +95.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 8.1% | +129.2% | +68.9% |
| Apr 2020 | Jun 2020 | 8 | 8.9% | +127.5% | +55.9% |
| May 2023 | Jul 2023 | 6 | 4.4% | +9.4% | -8.0% |
| Jul 2023 | May 2024 | 41 | 40.7% | -9.3% | -6.9% |
| Jun 2024 | Ongoing | 88+ | 48.6% | Ongoing | -11.5% |
| Average | 33 | — | +18.9% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02