AEO
American Eagle Outfitters Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Apparel Retail Investor Relations →
American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (AEO) closed at $16.94 as of 2026-05-01, trading 6.9% above its 200-week moving average of $15.85. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 13.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 31, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.87 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1624 weeks of data, AEO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 31 times. On average, these episodes lasted 23 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AEO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +12.3%.
With a market cap of $2.8 billion, AEO is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.5%. Return on equity stands at 10.7%. The stock trades at 1.7x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 13.4% over the past three years.
Over the past 31.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AEO would have grown to $3763, compared to $2477 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.3% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming AEO as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AEO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AEO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 31 historical episodes, buying AEO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +15.2% after 12 months (median +2.0%), compared to +7.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 63% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +77.0% vs +26.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AEO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
AEO has crossed below its 200-week MA 31 times with an average 1-year return of +12.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1995 | Apr 1995 | 2 | 13.0% | -44.2% | +3981.6% |
| May 1995 | May 1996 | 56 | 64.3% | -19.1% | +4045.4% |
| Dec 1996 | Jul 1997 | 30 | 52.2% | +166.5% | +5206.0% |
| Apr 2000 | Aug 2000 | 16 | 38.4% | +226.8% | +767.0% |
| Sep 2001 | Oct 2001 | 3 | 12.9% | -23.7% | +357.0% |
| Dec 2001 | Dec 2001 | 1 | 1.8% | -35.3% | +336.7% |
| Apr 2002 | Apr 2002 | 1 | 4.0% | -32.7% | +323.9% |
| Apr 2002 | Feb 2004 | 94 | 56.3% | -30.5% | +303.7% |
| Dec 2007 | Jan 2008 | 3 | 11.1% | -46.0% | +66.3% |
| Mar 2008 | Feb 2011 | 153 | 63.5% | -45.8% | +85.9% |
| Mar 2011 | Mar 2011 | 1 | 0.6% | +13.4% | +86.7% |
| May 2011 | Oct 2011 | 25 | 25.3% | +41.9% | +90.5% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 1 | 3.6% | +67.4% | +111.5% |
| Jan 2012 | Jan 2012 | 1 | 1.3% | +62.3% | +108.6% |
| Aug 2013 | Oct 2013 | 10 | 11.0% | -5.3% | +65.3% |
| Dec 2013 | Dec 2013 | 4 | 5.4% | -16.7% | +63.1% |
| Jan 2014 | Feb 2015 | 55 | 29.0% | +0.1% | +64.8% |
| Oct 2015 | Oct 2015 | 1 | 1.5% | +22.0% | +51.2% |
| Nov 2015 | Nov 2015 | 1 | 3.4% | +28.4% | +53.6% |
| Dec 2015 | Dec 2015 | 1 | 0.9% | +11.1% | +48.7% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 8 | 13.9% | +12.5% | +69.1% |
| Apr 2016 | Apr 2016 | 1 | 0.4% | -7.7% | +47.6% |
| Apr 2016 | May 2016 | 3 | 8.0% | +1.7% | +55.2% |
| Jan 2017 | Jan 2017 | 1 | 0.6% | +29.6% | +50.3% |
| Mar 2017 | Nov 2017 | 34 | 23.4% | +41.6% | +52.0% |
| Jul 2019 | Nov 2020 | 68 | 59.0% | -37.7% | +23.0% |
| Feb 2022 | Oct 2023 | 85 | 46.5% | -19.9% | +5.9% |
| Nov 2023 | Nov 2023 | 1 | 3.0% | +8.3% | +9.7% |
| Sep 2024 | Sep 2024 | 1 | 1.4% | +3.5% | -5.0% |
| Nov 2024 | Sep 2025 | 43 | 43.7% | -5.0% | -4.8% |
| Oct 2025 | Oct 2025 | 2 | 7.3% | N/A | +20.7% |
| Average | 23 | — | +12.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AEO below its 200-week moving average?
No. American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (AEO) is currently 6.9% above its 200-week moving average of $15.85. It would need to fall to $15.85 to cross below the line.
What is AEO's 200-week moving average price?
American Eagle Outfitters Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $15.85 as of 2026-05-01. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AEO drops below its 200-week moving average?
AEO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 31 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +12.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 23 weeks on average.
Is AEO a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AEO as of 2026-05-01: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 31. Free cash flow yield is 3.5%. Return on equity is 10.7%. Price-to-book is 1.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AEO compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 31.2 years, $100 invested in AEO would have grown to $3763, compared to $2477 for the S&P 500. That's 12.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. AEO has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does AEO pay a dividend?
Yes. American Eagle Outfitters Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 295.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-01