AEO
American Eagle Outfitters Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Apparel Retail Investor Relations →
American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (AEO) closed at $23.76 as of 2026-02-02, trading 53.1% above its 200-week moving average of $15.52. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 50.6% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 71, AEO is in overbought territory.
Over the past 1612 weeks of data, AEO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 31 times. On average, these episodes lasted 23 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AEO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +12.3%.
With a market cap of $4.0 billion, AEO is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.1%. Return on equity stands at 12.4%. The stock trades at 2.5x book value.
Share count has increased 11.8% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 31 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AEO would have grown to $5243, compared to $2374 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 13.6% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming AEO as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 53.8% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Growth of $100: AEO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AEO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 31 historical episodes, buying AEO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +15.2% after 12 months (median +2.0%), compared to +7.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 63% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +77.0% vs +26.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AEO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
AEO has crossed below its 200-week MA 31 times with an average 1-year return of +12.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1995 | Apr 1995 | 2 | 13.0% | -44.2% | +5586.2% |
| May 1995 | May 1996 | 56 | 64.3% | -19.1% | +5675.1% |
| Dec 1996 | Jul 1997 | 30 | 52.2% | +166.5% | +7292.1% |
| Apr 2000 | Aug 2000 | 16 | 38.4% | +226.8% | +1107.9% |
| Sep 2001 | Oct 2001 | 3 | 12.9% | -23.7% | +536.7% |
| Dec 2001 | Dec 2001 | 1 | 1.8% | -35.3% | +508.4% |
| Apr 2002 | Apr 2002 | 1 | 4.0% | -32.7% | +490.6% |
| Apr 2002 | Feb 2004 | 94 | 56.3% | -30.5% | +462.4% |
| Dec 2007 | Jan 2008 | 3 | 11.1% | -46.0% | +131.7% |
| Mar 2008 | Feb 2011 | 153 | 63.5% | -45.8% | +158.9% |
| Mar 2011 | Mar 2011 | 1 | 0.6% | +13.4% | +160.1% |
| May 2011 | Oct 2011 | 25 | 25.3% | +41.9% | +165.4% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 1 | 3.6% | +67.4% | +194.6% |
| Jan 2012 | Jan 2012 | 1 | 1.3% | +62.3% | +190.6% |
| Aug 2013 | Oct 2013 | 10 | 11.0% | -5.3% | +130.3% |
| Dec 2013 | Dec 2013 | 4 | 5.4% | -16.7% | +127.2% |
| Jan 2014 | Feb 2015 | 55 | 29.0% | +0.1% | +129.6% |
| Oct 2015 | Oct 2015 | 1 | 1.5% | +22.0% | +110.6% |
| Nov 2015 | Nov 2015 | 1 | 3.4% | +28.4% | +114.0% |
| Dec 2015 | Dec 2015 | 1 | 0.9% | +11.1% | +107.1% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 8 | 13.9% | +12.5% | +135.6% |
| Apr 2016 | Apr 2016 | 1 | 0.4% | -7.7% | +105.6% |
| Apr 2016 | May 2016 | 3 | 8.0% | +1.7% | +116.3% |
| Jan 2017 | Jan 2017 | 1 | 0.6% | +29.6% | +109.4% |
| Mar 2017 | Nov 2017 | 34 | 23.4% | +41.6% | +111.7% |
| Jul 2019 | Nov 2020 | 68 | 59.0% | -37.7% | +71.3% |
| Feb 2022 | Oct 2023 | 85 | 46.5% | -19.9% | +47.5% |
| Nov 2023 | Nov 2023 | 1 | 3.0% | +8.3% | +52.8% |
| Sep 2024 | Sep 2024 | 1 | 1.4% | +3.5% | +32.4% |
| Nov 2024 | Sep 2025 | 43 | 43.7% | -5.0% | +32.6% |
| Oct 2025 | Oct 2025 | 2 | 7.3% | N/A | +68.2% |
| Average | 23 | — | +12.3% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02