AEM
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited Materials - Gold Mining Investor Relations →
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM) closed at $145.27 as of 2026-07-31, trading 52.6% above its 200-week moving average of $95.19. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 53.3% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 26, AEM is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.03 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2740 weeks of data, AEM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 36 times. On average, these episodes lasted 31 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AEM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +17.7%.
With a market cap of $73.6 billion, AEM is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.8%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 23.0%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 2.6x book value.
Share count has increased 9.5% over three years, indicating dilution. AEM passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AEM would have grown to $5156, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.5% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming AEM as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 96.9% compound annual rate, with 2 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AEM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AEM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 20 historical episodes, buying AEM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +34.1% after 12 months (median +35.0%), compared to +17.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 60% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +67.9% vs +42.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AEM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices AEM would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where AEM's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $148.57 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $174.82 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $212.33 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $270.34 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $371.95 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from AEM's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
AEM has crossed below its 200-week MA 36 times with an average 1-year return of +17.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1974 | Oct 1974 | 6 | 13.4% | -29.4% | +3284.5% |
| Nov 1974 | Mar 1977 | 120 | 52.6% | -48.0% | +3352.2% |
| May 1977 | Jul 1977 | 10 | 10.7% | -20.5% | +4059.3% |
| Aug 1977 | Sep 1977 | 6 | 12.0% | +2.4% | +3961.4% |
| Oct 1977 | Jan 1978 | 10 | 19.2% | +2.3% | +3914.2% |
| Jan 1978 | Jul 1978 | 24 | 25.1% | +9.8% | +4110.0% |
| Oct 1978 | Dec 1978 | 7 | 13.1% | +19.2% | +4629.1% |
| Jun 1981 | Jul 1981 | 1 | 7.0% | -43.4% | +2729.7% |
| Jul 1981 | Aug 1981 | 2 | 3.4% | -28.5% | +2555.6% |
| Sep 1981 | Oct 1981 | 2 | 6.5% | +4.5% | +2476.3% |
| Oct 1981 | Sep 1982 | 47 | 52.9% | +30.3% | +2729.7% |
| Sep 1982 | Oct 1982 | 1 | 1.5% | +56.5% | +2401.6% |
| Jul 1984 | Jul 1984 | 2 | 8.7% | +22.1% | +1907.1% |
| Nov 1984 | Mar 1985 | 17 | 23.7% | +34.9% | +1907.1% |
| Oct 1987 | Nov 1987 | 1 | 6.6% | -30.4% | +1280.9% |
| Jan 1988 | Apr 1993 | 275 | 66.0% | -41.0% | +1188.1% |
| Feb 1997 | Feb 1997 | 1 | 1.2% | -51.3% | +1435.2% |
| Mar 1997 | Feb 2001 | 206 | 74.6% | -56.4% | +1481.7% |
| May 2005 | Aug 2005 | 12 | 14.3% | +229.8% | +1573.9% |
| Aug 2005 | Aug 2005 | 1 | 1.6% | +185.9% | +1396.0% |
| Oct 2008 | Dec 2008 | 8 | 28.7% | +99.3% | +432.4% |
| Jul 2011 | Aug 2011 | 2 | 6.2% | -21.3% | +237.1% |
| Sep 2011 | Nov 2012 | 60 | 42.4% | -11.2% | +215.0% |
| Dec 2012 | Feb 2016 | 165 | 50.6% | -51.2% | +241.6% |
| Aug 2018 | Dec 2018 | 18 | 14.8% | +68.2% | +380.3% |
| Jan 2019 | Jan 2019 | 1 | 1.8% | +56.5% | +335.4% |
| Apr 2019 | Apr 2019 | 1 | 0.1% | +35.0% | +318.9% |
| May 2019 | May 2019 | 1 | 0.6% | +65.1% | +318.9% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 4 | 19.5% | +61.3% | +348.7% |
| Sep 2021 | Oct 2021 | 2 | 4.0% | -20.2% | +221.9% |
| Nov 2021 | Feb 2022 | 14 | 13.1% | -0.7% | +213.7% |
| May 2022 | May 2022 | 3 | 6.2% | +15.9% | +216.5% |
| Jun 2022 | Jan 2023 | 29 | 27.9% | +4.0% | +213.5% |
| Jan 2023 | Apr 2023 | 9 | 17.4% | -4.2% | +198.1% |
| May 2023 | Dec 2023 | 30 | 16.4% | +34.0% | +186.8% |
| Jan 2024 | Mar 2024 | 9 | 13.3% | +57.8% | +187.5% |
| Average | 31 | — | +17.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AEM below its 200-week moving average?
No. Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM) is currently 52.6% above its 200-week moving average of $95.19. It would need to fall to $95.19 to cross below the line.
What is AEM's 200-week moving average price?
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited's 200-week moving average is $95.19 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AEM drops below its 200-week moving average?
AEM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 36 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +17.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 31 weeks on average.
Is AEM a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AEM as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 26 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 5.8%. Return on equity is 23.0%. Price-to-book is 2.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AEM compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in AEM would have grown to $5156, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 12.5% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. AEM has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does AEM pay a dividend?
Yes. Agnico Eagle Mines Limited currently pays a dividend yield of 124.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31