AEE
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Ameren Corporation (AEE) closed at $102.23 as of 2026-09-18, trading 19.0% above its 200-week moving average of $85.88. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 20.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 35, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.87 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1450 weeks of data, AEE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 11 times. On average, these episodes lasted 24 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AEE at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +14.3%.
With a market cap of $28.3 billion, AEE is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 11.9%. The stock trades at 2.1x book value.
Share count has increased 5.5% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 27.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AEE would have grown to $844, compared to $999 for the S&P 500. AEE has returned 8.0% annualized vs 8.6% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AEE vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AEE Crosses Below the Line?
Across 11 historical episodes, buying AEE when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +13.3% after 12 months (median +15.0%), compared to +7.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 73% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +25.3% vs +18.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AEE crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. AEE currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | $1.08 | $1.13 | +4.2% |
| 2026-05-05 | $1.18 | $1.28 | +8.2% |
| 2026-02-11 | $0.77 | $0.78 | +1.4% |
| 2025-11-05 | $2.12 | $2.35 | +10.9% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from AEE's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
AEE has crossed below its 200-week MA 11 times with an average 1-year return of +14.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1999 | Apr 1999 | 11 | 4.9% | -9.1% | +830.3% |
| Sep 1999 | Oct 1999 | 4 | 2.2% | +19.2% | +811.9% |
| Nov 1999 | Apr 2000 | 24 | 22.1% | +19.7% | +822.8% |
| Jun 2000 | Jun 2000 | 1 | 0.1% | +30.2% | +831.2% |
| Jan 2008 | May 2011 | 171 | 54.3% | -15.6% | +381.4% |
| May 2011 | Jun 2011 | 5 | 2.7% | +15.4% | +495.2% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 1 | 6.7% | +37.0% | +549.2% |
| Oct 2022 | Oct 2022 | 1 | 2.1% | +6.4% | +54.1% |
| Aug 2023 | Sep 2023 | 1 | 1.9% | +11.7% | +45.4% |
| Sep 2023 | Nov 2023 | 10 | 7.5% | +17.4% | +47.2% |
| Dec 2023 | Jul 2024 | 32 | 12.8% | +24.8% | +54.3% |
| Average | 24 | — | +14.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AEE below its 200-week moving average?
No. Ameren Corporation (AEE) is currently 19.0% above its 200-week moving average of $85.88. It would need to fall to $85.88 to cross below the line.
What is AEE's 200-week moving average price?
Ameren Corporation's 200-week moving average is $85.88 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AEE drops below its 200-week moving average?
AEE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 11 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +14.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 24 weeks on average.
Is AEE a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AEE as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 35. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 11.9%. Price-to-book is 2.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AEE compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 27.8 years, $100 invested in AEE would have grown to $844, compared to $999 for the S&P 500. That's 8.0% annualized vs 8.6% for the index. AEE has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does AEE pay a dividend?
Yes. Ameren Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 289.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18