ADTN
ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. Technology - Communication Equipment Investor Relations →
ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (ADTN) closed at $15.18 as of 2026-06-19, trading 50.2% above its 200-week moving average of $10.10. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 50.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 67, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.98 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1614 weeks of data, ADTN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times. On average, these episodes lasted 40 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ADTN at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +10.5%.
With a market cap of $1230 million, ADTN is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.7%. Return on equity stands at -4.9%. The stock trades at 8.9x book value.
Share count has increased 2.6% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 31 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ADTN would have grown to $130, compared to $2276 for the S&P 500. ADTN has returned 0.9% annualized vs 10.6% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ADTN vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ADTN Crosses Below the Line?
Across 23 historical episodes, buying ADTN when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +9.2% after 12 months (median -8.0%), compared to +11.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 43% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -2.5% vs +19.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ADTN crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ADTN would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ADTN's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-04.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $11.38 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $14.19 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $18.84 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $28.01 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $54.61 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ADTN's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ADTN has crossed below its 200-week MA 23 times with an average 1-year return of +10.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1996 | Nov 1996 | 5 | 5.4% | +15.7% | +24.3% |
| Feb 1997 | Aug 1997 | 26 | 39.8% | -13.3% | +22.2% |
| Oct 1997 | Nov 1997 | 2 | 4.0% | -29.6% | +27.7% |
| Nov 1997 | Jun 1999 | 83 | 55.2% | -28.6% | +28.2% |
| Jul 1999 | Jul 1999 | 1 | 0.1% | +81.3% | +28.4% |
| Sep 1999 | Oct 1999 | 1 | 2.0% | +21.8% | +31.6% |
| Nov 2000 | Dec 2002 | 109 | 54.3% | -22.2% | +37.0% |
| Jan 2003 | Mar 2003 | 7 | 10.5% | +114.3% | +36.8% |
| Dec 2004 | Dec 2004 | 1 | 2.5% | +77.5% | +18.6% |
| Jan 2005 | Apr 2005 | 15 | 14.9% | +74.9% | +24.6% |
| Jun 2006 | Apr 2007 | 43 | 17.2% | +13.8% | -9.9% |
| Jun 2007 | Jun 2007 | 1 | 1.6% | +3.3% | -15.8% |
| Sep 2007 | Apr 2008 | 30 | 25.6% | -11.8% | -9.5% |
| Jul 2008 | Jul 2009 | 52 | 43.0% | +5.2% | -10.2% |
| Nov 2009 | Dec 2009 | 2 | 2.0% | +51.7% | -4.8% |
| Jan 2010 | Feb 2010 | 2 | 0.4% | +99.3% | -5.6% |
| Jul 2012 | Nov 2016 | 226 | 43.6% | +17.2% | -9.9% |
| Apr 2017 | Apr 2017 | 2 | 4.3% | -17.1% | -6.6% |
| May 2017 | May 2017 | 1 | 1.1% | -22.5% | -9.2% |
| Jan 2018 | Sep 2018 | 34 | 23.3% | -25.7% | +7.4% |
| Sep 2018 | Nov 2020 | 114 | 62.7% | -34.3% | -1.9% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2023 | 1 | 0.1% | -63.0% | +0.9% |
| Apr 2023 | Mar 2026 | 154 | 69.6% | -65.5% | +4.1% |
| Average | 40 | — | +10.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ADTN below its 200-week moving average?
No. ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (ADTN) is currently 50.2% above its 200-week moving average of $10.10. It would need to fall to $10.10 to cross below the line.
What is ADTN's 200-week moving average price?
ADTRAN Holdings, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $10.10 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ADTN drops below its 200-week moving average?
ADTN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +10.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 40 weeks on average.
Is ADTN a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ADTN as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 67. Free cash flow yield is 3.7%. Return on equity is -4.9%. Price-to-book is 8.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ADTN compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 31 years, $100 invested in ADTN would have grown to $130, compared to $2276 for the S&P 500. That's 0.9% annualized vs 10.6% for the index. ADTN has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19