ADTN
ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. Technology - Communication Equipment Investor Relations →
ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (ADTN) closed at $11.46 as of 2026-03-20, trading 10.0% above its 200-week moving average of $10.42. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -4.8% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 80, ADTN is in overbought territory.
A big jump in activity this week — 2.0x the usual volume, and the price went up. Significantly more people than usual decided to buy. This kind of surge, especially on a stock already below its 200-week average, can be an early sign that sentiment is shifting.
Over the past 1601 weeks of data, ADTN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times. On average, these episodes lasted 40 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ADTN at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +14.0%.
With a market cap of $924 million, ADTN is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 7.1%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at -6.8%. The stock trades at 6.3x book value.
Share count has increased 2.6% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 30.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ADTN would have grown to $98, compared to $1972 for the S&P 500. ADTN has returned -0.1% annualized vs 10.2% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ADTN vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ADTN Crosses Below the Line?
Across 23 historical episodes, buying ADTN when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +9.2% after 12 months (median -8.0%), compared to +11.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 43% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -2.5% vs +19.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ADTN crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
ADTN has crossed below its 200-week MA 23 times with an average 1-year return of +14.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1996 | Nov 1996 | 5 | 5.4% | +15.7% | -6.2% |
| Feb 1997 | Aug 1997 | 26 | 39.8% | -13.3% | -7.7% |
| Oct 1997 | Nov 1997 | 2 | 4.0% | -29.6% | -3.6% |
| Nov 1997 | Jun 1999 | 83 | 55.2% | -28.6% | -3.2% |
| Jul 1999 | Jul 1999 | 1 | 0.1% | +81.3% | -3.1% |
| Sep 1999 | Oct 1999 | 1 | 2.0% | +21.8% | -0.6% |
| Nov 2000 | Dec 2002 | 109 | 54.3% | -22.2% | +3.4% |
| Jan 2003 | Mar 2003 | 7 | 10.5% | +114.3% | +3.2% |
| Dec 2004 | Dec 2004 | 1 | 2.5% | +77.5% | -10.5% |
| Jan 2005 | Apr 2005 | 15 | 14.9% | +74.9% | -5.9% |
| Jun 2006 | Apr 2007 | 43 | 17.2% | +13.8% | -32.0% |
| Jun 2007 | Jun 2007 | 1 | 1.6% | +3.3% | -36.5% |
| Sep 2007 | Apr 2008 | 30 | 25.6% | -11.8% | -31.7% |
| Jul 2008 | Jul 2009 | 52 | 43.0% | +5.2% | -32.2% |
| Nov 2009 | Dec 2009 | 2 | 2.0% | +51.7% | -28.1% |
| Jan 2010 | Feb 2010 | 2 | 0.4% | +99.3% | -28.7% |
| Jul 2012 | Nov 2016 | 226 | 43.6% | +17.2% | -31.9% |
| Apr 2017 | Apr 2017 | 2 | 4.3% | -17.1% | -29.5% |
| May 2017 | May 2017 | 1 | 1.1% | -22.5% | -31.4% |
| Jan 2018 | Sep 2018 | 34 | 23.3% | -25.7% | -18.9% |
| Sep 2018 | Nov 2020 | 114 | 62.7% | -34.3% | -26.0% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2023 | 1 | 0.1% | -63.0% | -23.8% |
| Apr 2023 | Ongoing | 155+ | 69.6% | Ongoing | -21.4% |
| Average | 40 | — | +14.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ADTN below its 200-week moving average?
No. ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (ADTN) is currently 10.0% above its 200-week moving average of $10.42. It would need to fall to $10.42 to cross below the line.
What is ADTN's 200-week moving average price?
ADTRAN Holdings, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $10.42 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ADTN drops below its 200-week moving average?
ADTN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +14.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 40 weeks on average.
Is ADTN a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ADTN as of 2026-03-20: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 80 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 7.1%. Return on equity is -6.8%. Price-to-book is 6.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ADTN compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 30.8 years, $100 invested in ADTN would have grown to $98, compared to $1972 for the S&P 500. That's -0.1% annualized vs 10.2% for the index. ADTN has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20