ADTN
ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. Technology - Communication Equipment Investor Relations →
ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (ADTN) closed at $9.86 as of 2026-02-02, trading 7.2% below its 200-week moving average of $10.63. This places ADTN in the deep value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -13.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 46, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 1595 weeks of data, ADTN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times. On average, these episodes lasted 39 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ADTN at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +14.0%.
With a market cap of $790 million, ADTN is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 7.2%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at -11.8%. The stock trades at 5.6x book value.
Share count has increased 61.5% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 30.7 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ADTN would have grown to $85, compared to $2094 for the S&P 500. ADTN has returned -0.5% annualized vs 10.4% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: ADTN vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ADTN Crosses Below the Line?
Across 23 historical episodes, buying ADTN when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +9.2% after 12 months (median -8.0%), compared to +11.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 43% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -2.5% vs +19.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ADTN crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
ADTN has crossed below its 200-week MA 23 times with an average 1-year return of +14.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1996 | Nov 1996 | 5 | 5.4% | +15.7% | -19.3% |
| Feb 1997 | Aug 1997 | 26 | 39.8% | -13.3% | -20.6% |
| Oct 1997 | Nov 1997 | 2 | 4.0% | -29.6% | -17.0% |
| Nov 1997 | Jun 1999 | 83 | 55.2% | -28.6% | -16.8% |
| Jul 1999 | Jul 1999 | 1 | 0.1% | +81.3% | -16.6% |
| Sep 1999 | Oct 1999 | 1 | 2.0% | +21.8% | -14.5% |
| Nov 2000 | Dec 2002 | 109 | 54.3% | -22.2% | -11.0% |
| Jan 2003 | Mar 2003 | 7 | 10.5% | +114.3% | -11.2% |
| Dec 2004 | Dec 2004 | 1 | 2.5% | +77.5% | -23.0% |
| Jan 2005 | Apr 2005 | 15 | 14.9% | +74.9% | -19.1% |
| Jun 2006 | Apr 2007 | 43 | 17.2% | +13.8% | -41.5% |
| Jun 2007 | Jun 2007 | 1 | 1.6% | +3.3% | -45.3% |
| Sep 2007 | Apr 2008 | 30 | 25.6% | -11.8% | -41.2% |
| Jul 2008 | Jul 2009 | 52 | 43.0% | +5.2% | -41.7% |
| Nov 2009 | Dec 2009 | 2 | 2.0% | +51.7% | -38.2% |
| Jan 2010 | Feb 2010 | 2 | 0.4% | +99.3% | -38.7% |
| Jul 2012 | Nov 2016 | 226 | 43.6% | +17.2% | -41.4% |
| Apr 2017 | Apr 2017 | 2 | 4.3% | -17.1% | -39.4% |
| May 2017 | May 2017 | 1 | 1.1% | -22.5% | -41.0% |
| Jan 2018 | Sep 2018 | 34 | 23.3% | -25.7% | -30.3% |
| Sep 2018 | Nov 2020 | 114 | 62.7% | -34.3% | -36.3% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2023 | 1 | 0.1% | -63.0% | -34.5% |
| Apr 2023 | Ongoing | 149+ | 69.6% | Ongoing | -32.4% |
| Average | 39 | — | +14.0% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02