ADSK
Autodesk, Inc. Technology - Software - Application Investor Relations →
Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) closed at $193.82 as of 2026-06-19, trading 21.3% below its 200-week moving average of $246.32. This places ADSK in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -19.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 30, indicating neutral momentum.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.3x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 2090 weeks of data, ADSK has crossed below its 200-week moving average 32 times. On average, these episodes lasted 16 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ADSK at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +31.5%.
With a market cap of $40.9 billion, ADSK is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 7.5%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 50.4%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 12.8x book value.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ADSK would have grown to $3563, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.3% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming ADSK as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 2 open-market purchases totaling $1,288,229. Notably, these purchases occurred while ADSK is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 5.5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ADSK vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ADSK Crosses Below the Line?
Across 32 historical episodes, buying ADSK when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +30.7% after 12 months (median +28.0%), compared to +8.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 79% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +69.0% vs +24.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ADSK crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ADSK would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ADSK's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-27.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $218.18 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $225.77 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $233.90 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $242.64 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $252.06 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ADSK's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ADSK has crossed below its 200-week MA 32 times with an average 1-year return of +31.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1991 | Jul 1992 | 38 | 37.1% | +39.9% | +4336.5% |
| Mar 1993 | May 1993 | 7 | 5.5% | +40.0% | +3858.5% |
| Jul 1993 | Aug 1993 | 4 | 5.2% | +29.1% | +3982.0% |
| Oct 1993 | Dec 1993 | 7 | 10.3% | +61.3% | +3806.1% |
| Jun 1996 | Jan 1997 | 30 | 29.5% | +33.5% | +2659.7% |
| Feb 1997 | Feb 1997 | 1 | 1.4% | +42.5% | +2618.7% |
| Apr 1997 | Apr 1997 | 1 | 4.9% | +43.6% | +2676.3% |
| Dec 1997 | Dec 1997 | 2 | 2.6% | +26.0% | +2307.3% |
| Jun 1998 | Nov 1998 | 21 | 33.8% | -12.6% | +2265.4% |
| Apr 1999 | Feb 2000 | 44 | 46.0% | +61.8% | +2712.5% |
| Jun 2000 | Jan 2001 | 29 | 41.6% | +0.5% | +2246.2% |
| Mar 2001 | Apr 2001 | 5 | 12.4% | +34.0% | +2269.9% |
| May 2001 | Jun 2001 | 3 | 5.9% | -13.9% | +2261.7% |
| Sep 2001 | Oct 2001 | 2 | 3.6% | -19.9% | +2387.4% |
| May 2002 | Mar 2003 | 46 | 28.0% | +11.1% | +2547.6% |
| Apr 2003 | May 2003 | 2 | 0.9% | +127.9% | +2425.9% |
| May 2003 | Jun 2003 | 3 | 5.1% | +118.2% | +2531.3% |
| Jul 2003 | Aug 2003 | 5 | 6.9% | +150.1% | +2456.0% |
| Feb 2008 | Apr 2008 | 8 | 15.8% | -59.2% | +523.4% |
| Jun 2008 | Apr 2010 | 96 | 67.9% | -44.3% | +425.5% |
| May 2010 | Oct 2010 | 23 | 25.2% | +47.4% | +544.8% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 10 | 24.3% | +13.1% | +526.8% |
| Sep 2015 | Oct 2015 | 1 | 2.1% | +64.4% | +340.5% |
| Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | 2 | 3.9% | +82.8% | +319.8% |
| Feb 2022 | Mar 2022 | 2 | 8.7% | -0.1% | -6.7% |
| Apr 2022 | Jul 2022 | 16 | 22.0% | -2.4% | -4.2% |
| Aug 2022 | Dec 2023 | 68 | 16.2% | +3.9% | -6.7% |
| Jan 2024 | Jan 2024 | 1 | 1.8% | +28.1% | -15.6% |
| Apr 2024 | Jun 2024 | 10 | 15.4% | +9.1% | -18.2% |
| Jul 2024 | Aug 2024 | 1 | 3.0% | +28.4% | -16.2% |
| Feb 2026 | Feb 2026 | 3 | 6.6% | N/A | -19.4% |
| Mar 2026 | Ongoing | 13+ | 21.3% | Ongoing | -15.7% |
| Average | 16 | — | +31.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ADSK below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) is trading 21.3% below its 200-week moving average of $246.32. The current price is $193.82.
What is ADSK's 200-week moving average price?
Autodesk, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $246.32 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ADSK drops below its 200-week moving average?
ADSK has crossed below its 200-week moving average 32 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +31.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 16 weeks on average.
Is ADSK a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ADSK as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 30. Free cash flow yield is 7.5%. Return on equity is 50.4%. Price-to-book is 12.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ADSK compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in ADSK would have grown to $3563, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 11.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. ADSK has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19