ADPT
Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation Healthcare - Biotechnology Investor Relations →
Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation (ADPT) closed at $17.53 as of 2026-06-19, trading 106.7% above its 200-week moving average of $8.48. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 108.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 65, indicating neutral momentum.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.8x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 316 weeks of data, ADPT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 2 times. On average, these episodes lasted 108 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -71.5%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $2.8 billion, ADPT is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 0.6%. Return on equity stands at -24.0%. The stock trades at 12.9x book value.
Share count has increased 7.5% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 6.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ADPT would have grown to $37, compared to $264 for the S&P 500. ADPT has returned -15.1% annualized vs 17.3% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ADPT vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ADPT Crosses Below the Line?
Across 2 historical episodes, buying ADPT when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -72.5% after 12 months (median -64.0%), compared to +7.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. After 24 months, the average return was -78.5% vs +4.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ADPT crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. ADPT currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ADPT's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ADPT has crossed below its 200-week MA 2 times with an average 1-year return of +-71.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2021 | Apr 2021 | 3 | 5.6% | -66.6% | -54.1% |
| May 2021 | Jun 2025 | 213 | 88.9% | -76.5% | -49.9% |
| Average | 108 | — | +-71.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ADPT below its 200-week moving average?
No. Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation (ADPT) is currently 106.7% above its 200-week moving average of $8.48. It would need to fall to $8.48 to cross below the line.
What is ADPT's 200-week moving average price?
Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation's 200-week moving average is $8.48 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ADPT drops below its 200-week moving average?
ADPT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 2 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -71.5%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 108 weeks on average.
Is ADPT a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ADPT as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 65. Free cash flow yield is 0.6%. Return on equity is -24.0%. Price-to-book is 12.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ADPT compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 6.1 years, $100 invested in ADPT would have grown to $37, compared to $264 for the S&P 500. That's -15.1% annualized vs 17.3% for the index. ADPT has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19