ADP
Automatic Data Processing, Inc. Technology - Software - Application Investor Relations →
Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) closed at $231.36 as of 2026-02-02, trading 6.1% below its 200-week moving average of $246.35. This places ADP in the deep value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 0.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 33, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 2346 weeks of data, ADP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times. On average, these episodes lasted 14 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ADP at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +27.3%.
With a market cap of $93.6 billion, ADP is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.7%. Return on equity stands at 73.8%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 14.6x book value.
ADP is a Dividend Aristocrat, having increased its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years. The current yield is 294.00%. Management has been repurchasing shares, with a 2.6% reduction over three years.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ADP would have grown to $4202, compared to $2849 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.9% vs 10.6% for the index — confirming ADP as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 19.9% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Growth of $100: ADP vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ADP Crosses Below the Line?
Across 9 historical episodes, buying ADP when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +7.0% after 12 months (median +9.0%), compared to +5.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +25.2% vs +25.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ADP crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
ADP has crossed below its 200-week MA 16 times with an average 1-year return of +27.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1982 | Jan 1982 | 1 | 3.1% | +48.2% | +40344.8% |
| Feb 1982 | Feb 1982 | 1 | 0.1% | +40.2% | +39125.4% |
| Mar 1982 | Mar 1982 | 2 | 1.2% | +62.4% | +39523.6% |
| May 1982 | Aug 1982 | 14 | 15.7% | +59.4% | +39523.6% |
| Sep 1982 | Oct 1982 | 2 | 3.6% | +57.4% | +40555.5% |
| Feb 1989 | Apr 1989 | 5 | 2.7% | +40.5% | +12265.5% |
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | 2.8% | -18.6% | +1034.7% |
| Jun 2002 | Nov 2004 | 125 | 41.7% | -26.2% | +960.0% |
| Jan 2005 | Jan 2005 | 2 | 0.9% | +10.7% | +1024.2% |
| Feb 2005 | Feb 2005 | 1 | 1.5% | +8.4% | +1041.3% |
| Jun 2005 | Jun 2005 | 1 | 2.5% | +10.6% | +1068.5% |
| Jan 2008 | Mar 2008 | 9 | 6.2% | +2.6% | +937.7% |
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2009 | 52 | 19.7% | +24.2% | +1099.9% |
| Aug 2010 | Aug 2010 | 2 | 0.3% | +21.2% | +861.7% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 1 | 9.1% | +68.0% | +133.2% |
| Feb 2026 | Ongoing | 1+ | 6.1% | Ongoing | N/A |
| Average | 14 | — | +27.3% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02