ADMA
ADMA Biologics, Inc. Healthcare - Biotechnology Investor Relations →
ADMA Biologics, Inc. (ADMA) closed at $8.31 as of 2026-06-19, trading 21.9% below its 200-week moving average of $10.64. This places ADMA in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -22.6% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 21, ADMA is in oversold territory.
Over the past 14 weeks, down-weeks have had more trading volume than up-weeks (0.69 buyers-vs-sellers ratio). That means when people are active, they're more often selling than buying. Sellers are still more in control than buyers.
Over the past 613 weeks of data, ADMA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 7 times. On average, these episodes lasted 57 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -23.3%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $1926 million, ADMA is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.0%. Return on equity stands at 43.3%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 5.0x book value.
Share count has increased 7.2% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 11.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ADMA would have grown to $72, compared to $464 for the S&P 500. ADMA has returned -2.7% annualized vs 13.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ADMA vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ADMA Crosses Below the Line?
Across 6 historical episodes, buying ADMA when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -12.6% after 12 months (median -16.0%), compared to +9.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 20% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +95.4% vs +37.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ADMA crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ADMA would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ADMA's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-05.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $7.60 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $8.23 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $8.97 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $9.87 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $10.95 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ADMA's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ADMA has crossed below its 200-week MA 7 times with an average 1-year return of +-23.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2015 | Jun 2015 | 17 | 17.8% | -45.0% | -9.8% |
| Jul 2015 | Oct 2015 | 11 | 8.5% | -26.6% | -9.0% |
| Oct 2015 | Sep 2019 | 203 | 69.6% | -32.5% | -10.3% |
| Sep 2019 | Aug 2022 | 153 | 68.3% | -53.0% | +79.1% |
| Sep 2022 | Nov 2022 | 8 | 13.6% | +40.8% | +213.6% |
| Mar 2026 | Apr 2026 | 3 | 10.4% | N/A | -10.2% |
| May 2026 | Ongoing | 7+ | 24.7% | Ongoing | +1.7% |
| Average | 57 | — | +-23.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ADMA below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, ADMA Biologics, Inc. (ADMA) is trading 21.9% below its 200-week moving average of $10.64. The current price is $8.31.
What is ADMA's 200-week moving average price?
ADMA Biologics, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $10.64 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ADMA drops below its 200-week moving average?
ADMA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 7 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -23.3%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 57 weeks on average.
Is ADMA a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ADMA as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 21 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 3.0%. Return on equity is 43.3%. Price-to-book is 5.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ADMA compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 11.8 years, $100 invested in ADMA would have grown to $72, compared to $464 for the S&P 500. That's -2.7% annualized vs 13.8% for the index. ADMA has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19