ADM
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company Consumer Staples - Agricultural Products Investor Relations →
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) closed at $75.10 as of 2026-06-19, trading 19.9% above its 200-week moving average of $62.62. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 28.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 54, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.91 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2365 weeks of data, ADM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 35 times. On average, these episodes lasted 18 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ADM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +13.0%.
With a market cap of $36.2 billion, ADM is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.4%. Return on equity stands at 4.8%. The stock trades at 1.6x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 12.2% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ADM would have grown to $1324, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. ADM has returned 8.0% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 24.9% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ADM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ADM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 29 historical episodes, buying ADM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +11.7% after 12 months (median +7.0%), compared to +10.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 69% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +30.6% vs +28.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ADM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ADM would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ADM's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-04.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $68.02 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $73.95 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $81.01 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $89.56 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $100.12 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ADM's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ADM has crossed below its 200-week MA 35 times with an average 1-year return of +13.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1981 | Dec 1981 | 42 | 26.6% | -19.0% | +7101.9% |
| Dec 1981 | Nov 1982 | 44 | 31.4% | +17.3% | +7293.4% |
| Apr 1984 | Apr 1984 | 3 | 4.0% | +24.7% | +7231.4% |
| May 1984 | Aug 1984 | 12 | 12.5% | +25.0% | +7063.5% |
| Oct 1984 | Oct 1984 | 4 | 2.3% | +33.7% | +7057.9% |
| Nov 1984 | Nov 1984 | 1 | 0.5% | +48.0% | +7095.8% |
| Nov 1993 | Nov 1993 | 1 | 0.3% | +31.2% | +1400.5% |
| Oct 1995 | Oct 1995 | 1 | 1.4% | +40.4% | +1207.2% |
| Jul 1998 | Nov 1998 | 18 | 11.4% | -12.5% | +870.0% |
| Dec 1998 | Dec 1998 | 2 | 7.0% | -17.7% | +862.7% |
| Jan 1999 | Jan 2001 | 107 | 40.3% | -23.5% | +873.5% |
| Mar 2001 | Jun 2001 | 11 | 15.4% | +8.3% | +935.0% |
| Jun 2001 | Jul 2001 | 1 | 3.4% | +4.4% | +980.8% |
| Jul 2001 | Aug 2001 | 3 | 3.0% | -6.0% | +984.9% |
| Sep 2001 | Oct 2001 | 5 | 3.9% | +2.4% | +1010.5% |
| Jul 2002 | Aug 2002 | 6 | 7.2% | +11.0% | +1020.9% |
| Feb 2003 | May 2003 | 12 | 8.8% | +56.9% | +1071.4% |
| Jun 2008 | Aug 2010 | 112 | 51.0% | -13.1% | +287.8% |
| Nov 2010 | Jan 2011 | 8 | 4.0% | +0.2% | +281.9% |
| Jun 2011 | Jun 2011 | 3 | 3.0% | +10.3% | +285.2% |
| Aug 2011 | Nov 2011 | 17 | 16.7% | -8.8% | +297.3% |
| Dec 2011 | Jan 2012 | 3 | 4.4% | +0.2% | +306.1% |
| Jul 2012 | Jan 2013 | 27 | 12.3% | +36.0% | +306.2% |
| Nov 2015 | Apr 2016 | 23 | 17.1% | +14.0% | +173.8% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 2 | 1.8% | +14.4% | +166.2% |
| May 2017 | May 2017 | 1 | 0.1% | +11.9% | +138.0% |
| Jun 2017 | Jul 2017 | 5 | 0.8% | +16.6% | +138.2% |
| Aug 2017 | Aug 2017 | 2 | 1.2% | +24.7% | +137.6% |
| Oct 2017 | Feb 2018 | 15 | 5.6% | +24.4% | +144.5% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 2 | 0.8% | +16.2% | +129.6% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 3 | 4.8% | -7.3% | +135.2% |
| Jul 2019 | Sep 2019 | 8 | 7.1% | +6.0% | +128.9% |
| Oct 2019 | Oct 2019 | 1 | 1.3% | +30.0% | +130.2% |
| Feb 2020 | Jul 2020 | 20 | 24.7% | +55.2% | +138.5% |
| Jan 2024 | Jan 2026 | 103 | 34.6% | +0.5% | +57.5% |
| Average | 18 | — | +13.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ADM below its 200-week moving average?
No. Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) is currently 19.9% above its 200-week moving average of $62.62. It would need to fall to $62.62 to cross below the line.
What is ADM's 200-week moving average price?
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company's 200-week moving average is $62.62 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ADM drops below its 200-week moving average?
ADM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 35 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +13.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 18 weeks on average.
Is ADM a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ADM as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 54. Free cash flow yield is 4.4%. Return on equity is 4.8%. Price-to-book is 1.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ADM compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in ADM would have grown to $1324, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 8.0% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. ADM has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19