ADM
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company Consumer Staples - Agricultural Products Investor Relations →
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) closed at $66.33 as of 2026-02-02, trading 4.2% above its 200-week moving average of $63.63. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 5.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 64, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 2346 weeks of data, ADM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 35 times. On average, these episodes lasted 18 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ADM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +13.0%.
With a market cap of $31.9 billion, ADM is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 7.4%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 4.7%. The stock trades at 1.4x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 14.6% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ADM would have grown to $1153, compared to $2849 for the S&P 500. ADM has returned 7.7% annualized vs 10.6% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -39.1% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: ADM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ADM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 29 historical episodes, buying ADM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +11.7% after 12 months (median +7.0%), compared to +10.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 69% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +30.6% vs +28.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ADM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
ADM has crossed below its 200-week MA 35 times with an average 1-year return of +13.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1981 | Dec 1981 | 42 | 26.6% | -19.0% | +6172.0% |
| Dec 1981 | Nov 1982 | 44 | 31.4% | +17.3% | +6338.7% |
| Apr 1984 | Apr 1984 | 3 | 4.0% | +24.7% | +6284.7% |
| May 1984 | Aug 1984 | 12 | 12.5% | +25.0% | +6138.5% |
| Oct 1984 | Oct 1984 | 4 | 2.3% | +33.7% | +6133.6% |
| Nov 1984 | Nov 1984 | 1 | 0.5% | +48.0% | +6166.6% |
| Nov 1993 | Nov 1993 | 1 | 0.3% | +31.2% | +1206.8% |
| Oct 1995 | Oct 1995 | 1 | 1.4% | +40.4% | +1038.4% |
| Jul 1998 | Nov 1998 | 18 | 11.4% | -12.5% | +744.8% |
| Dec 1998 | Dec 1998 | 2 | 7.0% | -17.7% | +738.4% |
| Jan 1999 | Jan 2001 | 107 | 40.3% | -23.5% | +747.8% |
| Mar 2001 | Jun 2001 | 11 | 15.4% | +8.3% | +801.3% |
| Jun 2001 | Jul 2001 | 1 | 3.4% | +4.4% | +841.2% |
| Jul 2001 | Aug 2001 | 3 | 3.0% | -6.0% | +844.8% |
| Sep 2001 | Oct 2001 | 5 | 3.9% | +2.4% | +867.1% |
| Jul 2002 | Aug 2002 | 6 | 7.2% | +11.0% | +876.2% |
| Feb 2003 | May 2003 | 12 | 8.8% | +56.9% | +920.1% |
| Jun 2008 | Aug 2010 | 112 | 51.0% | -13.1% | +237.7% |
| Nov 2010 | Jan 2011 | 8 | 4.0% | +0.2% | +232.6% |
| Jun 2011 | Jun 2011 | 3 | 3.0% | +10.3% | +235.5% |
| Aug 2011 | Nov 2011 | 17 | 16.7% | -8.8% | +246.0% |
| Dec 2011 | Jan 2012 | 3 | 4.4% | +0.2% | +253.6% |
| Jul 2012 | Jan 2013 | 27 | 12.3% | +36.0% | +253.7% |
| Nov 2015 | Apr 2016 | 23 | 17.1% | +14.0% | +138.5% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 2 | 1.8% | +14.4% | +131.9% |
| May 2017 | May 2017 | 1 | 0.1% | +11.9% | +107.3% |
| Jun 2017 | Jul 2017 | 5 | 0.8% | +16.6% | +107.4% |
| Aug 2017 | Aug 2017 | 2 | 1.2% | +24.7% | +106.9% |
| Oct 2017 | Feb 2018 | 15 | 5.6% | +24.4% | +113.0% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 2 | 0.8% | +16.2% | +100.0% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 3 | 4.8% | -7.3% | +104.9% |
| Jul 2019 | Sep 2019 | 8 | 7.1% | +6.0% | +99.3% |
| Oct 2019 | Oct 2019 | 1 | 1.3% | +30.0% | +100.5% |
| Feb 2020 | Jul 2020 | 20 | 24.7% | +55.2% | +107.7% |
| Jan 2024 | Jan 2026 | 103 | 34.6% | +0.5% | +37.2% |
| Average | 18 | — | +13.0% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02