ADEA
Adeia Inc. Technology - Software - Application Investor Relations →
Adeia Inc. (ADEA) closed at $24.82 as of 2026-09-18, trading 76.0% above its 200-week moving average of $14.10. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 90.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 30, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.72 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1144 weeks of data, ADEA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times. On average, these episodes lasted 38 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ADEA at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +11.2%.
With a market cap of $2.7 billion, ADEA is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 7.1%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 27.9%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 5.7x book value.
Share count has increased 3.6% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 22 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ADEA would have grown to $436, compared to $1007 for the S&P 500. ADEA has returned 6.9% annualized vs 11.1% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -4.3% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ADEA vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ADEA Crosses Below the Line?
Across 12 historical episodes, buying ADEA when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +10.8% after 12 months (median +16.0%), compared to +9.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +32.2% vs +27.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ADEA crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ADEA would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ADEA's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-02.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $23.74 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $26.65 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $30.39 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $35.34 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $42.23 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | $0.31 | $0.34 | +10.4% |
| 2026-05-04 | $0.33 | $0.38 | +15.8% |
| 2026-02-23 | $0.75 | $0.86 | +15.3% |
| 2025-11-03 | $0.34 | $0.28 | -18.2% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ADEA's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ADEA has crossed below its 200-week MA 12 times with an average 1-year return of +11.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2005 | Oct 2005 | 1 | 1.2% | +31.3% | +356.7% |
| Nov 2005 | Jan 2006 | 5 | 4.5% | +38.5% | +350.2% |
| Jun 2006 | Jul 2006 | 5 | 6.6% | +60.1% | +352.8% |
| Feb 2008 | Oct 2009 | 84 | 71.3% | -54.2% | +417.4% |
| Oct 2009 | Jan 2012 | 117 | 42.2% | -33.8% | +323.0% |
| Feb 2012 | Jan 2013 | 48 | 28.9% | +13.3% | +644.7% |
| Feb 2013 | Feb 2013 | 2 | 8.3% | +28.4% | +621.5% |
| Jul 2017 | Apr 2019 | 87 | 52.4% | -35.3% | +214.7% |
| May 2019 | Nov 2020 | 78 | 44.8% | -29.9% | +224.9% |
| Jan 2022 | Mar 2022 | 7 | 3.5% | +56.4% | +269.7% |
| Apr 2022 | Oct 2022 | 26 | 16.9% | +19.7% | +288.6% |
| May 2023 | May 2023 | 1 | 4.9% | +39.9% | +261.5% |
| Average | 38 | — | +11.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ADEA below its 200-week moving average?
No. Adeia Inc. (ADEA) is currently 76.0% above its 200-week moving average of $14.10. It would need to fall to $14.10 to cross below the line.
What is ADEA's 200-week moving average price?
Adeia Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $14.10 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ADEA drops below its 200-week moving average?
ADEA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +11.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 38 weeks on average.
Is ADEA a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ADEA as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 30. Free cash flow yield is 7.1%. Return on equity is 27.9%. Price-to-book is 5.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ADEA compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 22 years, $100 invested in ADEA would have grown to $436, compared to $1007 for the S&P 500. That's 6.9% annualized vs 11.1% for the index. ADEA has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does ADEA pay a dividend?
Yes. Adeia Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 80.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18