ADC
Agree Realty Corporation Real Estate - REIT - Retail Investor Relations →
Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) closed at $77.80 as of 2026-07-31, trading 21.6% above its 200-week moving average of $63.98. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 25.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 55, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.94 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1637 weeks of data, ADC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 15 times. On average, these episodes lasted 12 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ADC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +16.4%.
With a market cap of $9.4 billion, ADC is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.3%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 3.7%. The stock trades at 1.5x book value.
Share count has increased 33.1% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 31.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ADC would have grown to $4204, compared to $2567 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.6% vs 10.9% for the index — confirming ADC as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 11.7% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ADC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ADC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 15 historical episodes, buying ADC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +18.4% after 12 months (median +27.0%), compared to +6.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 73% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +38.4% vs +21.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ADC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ADC would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ADC's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $71.15 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $74.33 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $77.82 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $81.65 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $85.88 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ADC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ADC has crossed below its 200-week MA 15 times with an average 1-year return of +16.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1995 | May 1995 | 10 | 5.0% | +24.2% | +4158.5% |
| Oct 1995 | Nov 1995 | 6 | 4.1% | +43.5% | +4117.3% |
| Dec 1995 | Jan 1996 | 1 | 1.2% | +57.9% | +4061.8% |
| Oct 1999 | May 2000 | 29 | 14.2% | +3.9% | +2643.4% |
| Aug 2000 | Sep 2000 | 3 | 2.1% | +53.2% | +2538.8% |
| Oct 2000 | Jan 2001 | 13 | 4.6% | +42.4% | +2495.8% |
| Mar 2008 | Mar 2008 | 1 | 0.4% | -57.7% | +691.6% |
| Apr 2008 | Jul 2008 | 15 | 19.7% | -31.7% | +699.2% |
| Aug 2008 | Sep 2009 | 55 | 58.1% | -13.4% | +668.3% |
| Sep 2009 | Oct 2009 | 3 | 6.9% | +28.1% | +762.8% |
| Jan 2010 | Mar 2010 | 5 | 11.6% | +30.1% | +806.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 1 | 0.2% | +32.2% | +94.3% |
| Oct 2022 | Oct 2022 | 1 | 0.3% | -9.7% | +45.1% |
| Aug 2023 | Dec 2023 | 19 | 13.6% | +19.1% | +39.7% |
| Jan 2024 | Jun 2024 | 20 | 9.5% | +24.2% | +42.5% |
| Average | 12 | — | +16.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ADC below its 200-week moving average?
No. Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) is currently 21.6% above its 200-week moving average of $63.98. It would need to fall to $63.98 to cross below the line.
What is ADC's 200-week moving average price?
Agree Realty Corporation's 200-week moving average is $63.98 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ADC drops below its 200-week moving average?
ADC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 15 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +16.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 12 weeks on average.
Is ADC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ADC as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 55. Free cash flow yield is 5.3%. Return on equity is 3.7%. Price-to-book is 1.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ADC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 31.4 years, $100 invested in ADC would have grown to $4204, compared to $2567 for the S&P 500. That's 12.6% annualized vs 10.9% for the index. ADC has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does ADC pay a dividend?
Yes. Agree Realty Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 412.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31