ADBE
Adobe Inc. Technology - Software Investor Relations →
Adobe Inc. (ADBE) closed at $195.16 as of 2026-06-19, trading 53.4% below its 200-week moving average of $419.06. This places ADBE in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -51.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 32, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 14 weeks, down-weeks have had more trading volume than up-weeks (0.68 buyers-vs-sellers ratio). That means when people are active, they're more often selling than buying. Sellers are still more in control than buyers.
Over the past 2031 weeks of data, ADBE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 41 times. On average, these episodes lasted 12 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ADBE at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +38.9%.
With a market cap of $77.6 billion, ADBE is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 11.9%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 63.0%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 6.8x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 10.6% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ADBE would have grown to $7857, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 13.9% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming ADBE as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 10% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ADBE vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ADBE Crosses Below the Line?
Across 36 historical episodes, buying ADBE when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +27.8% after 12 months (median +16.0%), compared to +13.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +84.5% vs +33.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ADBE crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ADBE would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ADBE's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-02-28).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $217.38 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $232.64 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $250.21 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $270.64 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $294.71 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ADBE's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ADBE has crossed below its 200-week MA 41 times with an average 1-year return of +38.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1987 | Dec 1987 | 7 | 17.4% | +127.9% | +30836.2% |
| Jan 1988 | Feb 1988 | 3 | 6.2% | +72.5% | +25983.5% |
| Sep 1989 | Nov 1989 | 7 | 10.8% | +34.1% | +20055.4% |
| Dec 1989 | Dec 1989 | 1 | 2.2% | +64.1% | +19462.6% |
| Sep 1990 | Oct 1990 | 3 | 12.5% | +165.4% | +17306.4% |
| Aug 1992 | Jan 1993 | 20 | 26.8% | +26.9% | +9828.2% |
| Aug 1993 | Oct 1993 | 6 | 20.1% | +52.5% | +8020.1% |
| Nov 1993 | Nov 1993 | 3 | 8.9% | +81.7% | +8368.3% |
| Dec 1993 | Dec 1993 | 1 | 0.1% | +58.8% | +7521.5% |
| Mar 1996 | Apr 1996 | 2 | 2.6% | +32.2% | +4996.0% |
| Jul 1996 | Aug 1996 | 6 | 8.6% | +12.1% | +4805.3% |
| Sep 1996 | Sep 1996 | 2 | 6.0% | +24.5% | +4623.6% |
| Oct 1996 | Nov 1996 | 2 | 2.9% | +46.7% | +4600.0% |
| Jan 1997 | Jan 1997 | 1 | 0.1% | +6.8% | +4316.9% |
| Mar 1997 | Mar 1997 | 2 | 8.7% | +32.8% | +4620.1% |
| Jun 1997 | Aug 1997 | 7 | 5.5% | +10.4% | +4327.1% |
| Dec 1997 | Dec 1997 | 3 | 11.4% | +16.5% | +4388.7% |
| Jan 1998 | Feb 1998 | 4 | 4.5% | +25.1% | +3929.3% |
| May 1998 | Nov 1998 | 23 | 41.6% | +86.3% | +3858.4% |
| Dec 1998 | Dec 1998 | 1 | 3.2% | +206.9% | +3754.0% |
| Feb 1999 | Mar 1999 | 2 | 5.0% | +365.5% | +3624.7% |
| Mar 2001 | Mar 2001 | 1 | 2.5% | +45.2% | +1358.1% |
| Sep 2001 | Dec 2001 | 15 | 24.0% | -21.9% | +1465.6% |
| Jun 2002 | Sep 2003 | 67 | 52.5% | +4.1% | +992.6% |
| Nov 2003 | Mar 2004 | 17 | 9.5% | +47.1% | +893.3% |
| Feb 2008 | Feb 2008 | 1 | 2.3% | -34.6% | +488.0% |
| Feb 2008 | Mar 2008 | 3 | 4.9% | -50.4% | +480.0% |
| Sep 2008 | Nov 2009 | 58 | 53.2% | -4.0% | +479.3% |
| Jan 2010 | Mar 2010 | 6 | 10.5% | -3.2% | +467.7% |
| Mar 2010 | Mar 2010 | 1 | 1.3% | -7.7% | +462.9% |
| Apr 2010 | Feb 2011 | 44 | 24.4% | +1.5% | +474.0% |
| Mar 2011 | Mar 2011 | 2 | 4.7% | +5.7% | +510.1% |
| Jun 2011 | Jan 2012 | 34 | 29.9% | -0.1% | +516.2% |
| May 2012 | Jun 2012 | 1 | 1.9% | +43.9% | +554.5% |
| Apr 2022 | May 2022 | 4 | 2.6% | -4.6% | -50.7% |
| Jun 2022 | Jul 2022 | 7 | 11.1% | +15.3% | -50.4% |
| Aug 2022 | May 2023 | 40 | 33.7% | +37.8% | -48.8% |
| Apr 2024 | Apr 2024 | 3 | 3.1% | -25.7% | -58.8% |
| May 2024 | Jun 2024 | 3 | 7.5% | -14.2% | -59.0% |
| Oct 2024 | Nov 2024 | 2 | 0.7% | -26.9% | -59.7% |
| Dec 2024 | Ongoing | 80+ | 53.4% | Ongoing | -58.1% |
| Average | 12 | — | +38.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ADBE below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, Adobe Inc. (ADBE) is trading 53.4% below its 200-week moving average of $419.06. The current price is $195.16.
What is ADBE's 200-week moving average price?
Adobe Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $419.06 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ADBE drops below its 200-week moving average?
ADBE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 41 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +38.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 12 weeks on average.
Is ADBE a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ADBE as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 32. Free cash flow yield is 11.9%. Return on equity is 63.0%. Price-to-book is 6.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ADBE compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in ADBE would have grown to $7857, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 13.9% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. ADBE has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19