ADBE
Adobe Inc. Technology - Software Investor Relations →
Adobe Inc. (ADBE) closed at $268.38 as of 2026-02-02, trading 38.2% below its 200-week moving average of $434.11. This places ADBE in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -32.6% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 28, ADBE is in oversold territory.
Over the past 2012 weeks of data, ADBE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 41 times. On average, these episodes lasted 12 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ADBE at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +38.9%.
With a market cap of $112.3 billion, ADBE is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 7.8%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 55.4%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 9.5x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 10.6% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ADBE would have grown to $10805, compared to $2849 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 15.2% vs 10.6% for the index — confirming ADBE as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 10% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Growth of $100: ADBE vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ADBE Crosses Below the Line?
Across 36 historical episodes, buying ADBE when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +27.8% after 12 months (median +16.0%), compared to +13.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +92.8% vs +32.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ADBE crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
ADBE has crossed below its 200-week MA 41 times with an average 1-year return of +38.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1987 | Dec 1987 | 7 | 17.4% | +127.9% | +42442.8% |
| Jan 1988 | Feb 1988 | 3 | 6.2% | +72.5% | +35769.4% |
| Sep 1989 | Nov 1989 | 7 | 10.8% | +34.1% | +27617.3% |
| Dec 1989 | Dec 1989 | 1 | 2.2% | +64.1% | +26802.1% |
| Sep 1990 | Oct 1990 | 3 | 12.5% | +165.4% | +23836.9% |
| Aug 1992 | Jan 1993 | 20 | 26.8% | +26.9% | +13553.0% |
| Aug 1993 | Oct 1993 | 6 | 20.1% | +52.5% | +11066.6% |
| Nov 1993 | Nov 1993 | 3 | 8.9% | +81.7% | +11545.5% |
| Dec 1993 | Dec 1993 | 1 | 0.1% | +58.8% | +10380.9% |
| Mar 1996 | Apr 1996 | 2 | 2.6% | +32.2% | +6907.9% |
| Jul 1996 | Aug 1996 | 6 | 8.6% | +12.1% | +6645.7% |
| Sep 1996 | Sep 1996 | 2 | 6.0% | +24.5% | +6395.8% |
| Oct 1996 | Nov 1996 | 2 | 2.9% | +46.7% | +6363.3% |
| Jan 1997 | Jan 1997 | 1 | 0.1% | +6.8% | +5974.1% |
| Mar 1997 | Mar 1997 | 2 | 8.7% | +32.8% | +6391.0% |
| Jun 1997 | Aug 1997 | 7 | 5.5% | +10.4% | +5988.1% |
| Dec 1997 | Dec 1997 | 3 | 11.4% | +16.5% | +6072.7% |
| Jan 1998 | Feb 1998 | 4 | 4.5% | +25.1% | +5441.1% |
| May 1998 | Nov 1998 | 23 | 41.6% | +86.3% | +5343.5% |
| Dec 1998 | Dec 1998 | 1 | 3.2% | +206.9% | +5200.0% |
| Feb 1999 | Mar 1999 | 2 | 5.0% | +365.5% | +5022.2% |
| Mar 2001 | Mar 2001 | 1 | 2.5% | +45.2% | +1905.1% |
| Sep 2001 | Dec 2001 | 15 | 24.0% | -21.9% | +2053.0% |
| Jun 2002 | Sep 2003 | 67 | 52.5% | +4.1% | +1402.5% |
| Nov 2003 | Mar 2004 | 17 | 9.5% | +47.1% | +1265.9% |
| Feb 2008 | Feb 2008 | 1 | 2.3% | -34.6% | +708.6% |
| Feb 2008 | Mar 2008 | 3 | 4.9% | -50.4% | +697.6% |
| Sep 2008 | Nov 2009 | 58 | 53.2% | -4.0% | +696.6% |
| Jan 2010 | Mar 2010 | 6 | 10.5% | -3.2% | +680.6% |
| Mar 2010 | Mar 2010 | 1 | 1.3% | -7.7% | +674.1% |
| Apr 2010 | Feb 2011 | 44 | 24.4% | +1.5% | +689.4% |
| Mar 2011 | Mar 2011 | 2 | 4.7% | +5.7% | +738.9% |
| Jun 2011 | Jan 2012 | 34 | 29.9% | -0.1% | +747.4% |
| May 2012 | Jun 2012 | 1 | 1.9% | +43.9% | +800.0% |
| Apr 2022 | May 2022 | 4 | 2.6% | -4.6% | -32.2% |
| Jun 2022 | Jul 2022 | 7 | 11.1% | +15.3% | -31.9% |
| Aug 2022 | May 2023 | 40 | 33.7% | +37.8% | -29.6% |
| Apr 2024 | Apr 2024 | 3 | 3.1% | -25.7% | -43.4% |
| May 2024 | Jun 2024 | 3 | 7.5% | -14.2% | -43.6% |
| Oct 2024 | Nov 2024 | 2 | 0.7% | -26.9% | -44.5% |
| Dec 2024 | Ongoing | 61+ | 38.2% | Ongoing | -42.4% |
| Average | 12 | — | +38.9% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02