ACM
AECOM Industrials - Engineering & Construction Investor Relations →
AECOM (ACM) closed at $72.39 as of 2026-07-31, trading 21.3% below its 200-week moving average of $91.97. This places ACM in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -23.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 39, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.84 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 955 weeks of data, ACM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 27 times. On average, these episodes lasted 9 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ACM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +9.8%.
Return on equity stands at 28.6%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 4.1x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 5.1% over the past three years.
Over the past 18.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ACM would have grown to $263, compared to $755 for the S&P 500. ACM has returned 5.4% annualized vs 11.7% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 5.9% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ACM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ACM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 27 historical episodes, buying ACM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +13.1% after 12 months (median +8.0%), compared to +14.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 68% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +26.8% vs +31.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ACM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ACM would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ACM's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $65.60 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $71.14 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $77.70 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $85.60 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $95.28 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ACM's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ACM has crossed below its 200-week MA 27 times with an average 1-year return of +9.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2008 | Apr 2008 | 1 | 0.4% | -6.0% | +180.0% |
| Sep 2008 | Dec 2008 | 13 | 44.0% | +0.7% | +170.7% |
| Jan 2009 | Mar 2009 | 11 | 21.6% | +8.6% | +185.3% |
| Apr 2009 | May 2009 | 2 | 6.5% | +20.6% | +197.8% |
| Sep 2009 | Dec 2009 | 13 | 10.1% | -6.4% | +189.6% |
| Jan 2010 | Feb 2010 | 2 | 7.0% | +6.8% | +181.4% |
| Feb 2010 | Mar 2010 | 1 | 0.9% | +5.0% | +180.0% |
| May 2010 | Nov 2010 | 26 | 19.1% | +5.3% | +187.4% |
| Nov 2010 | Nov 2010 | 2 | 3.2% | -22.2% | +182.7% |
| Jan 2011 | Jan 2011 | 1 | 1.1% | -20.8% | +183.5% |
| Mar 2011 | May 2011 | 7 | 4.1% | -13.8% | +182.5% |
| Jun 2011 | Jun 2011 | 3 | 3.4% | -40.6% | +178.4% |
| Jul 2011 | Jan 2013 | 78 | 39.9% | -36.2% | +188.4% |
| Jan 2015 | Feb 2015 | 3 | 5.1% | +1.3% | +194.1% |
| Aug 2015 | Oct 2015 | 7 | 6.1% | +19.3% | +178.5% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 8 | 14.7% | +32.8% | +172.9% |
| Sep 2016 | Nov 2016 | 9 | 12.6% | +14.6% | +162.9% |
| Jul 2017 | Aug 2017 | 5 | 3.4% | +3.0% | +140.3% |
| May 2018 | May 2018 | 1 | 0.3% | -2.8% | +133.8% |
| Sep 2018 | Sep 2018 | 1 | 0.1% | +16.5% | +133.9% |
| Oct 2018 | Nov 2018 | 5 | 7.3% | +13.9% | +133.8% |
| Nov 2018 | Apr 2019 | 21 | 22.3% | +34.5% | +139.3% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 2 | 2.8% | +13.5% | +140.5% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 7 | 26.5% | +87.7% | +127.2% |
| May 2020 | May 2020 | 1 | 7.9% | +108.8% | +137.0% |
| Feb 2026 | Feb 2026 | 1 | 3.3% | N/A | -17.4% |
| Mar 2026 | Ongoing | 21+ | 26.3% | Ongoing | -19.9% |
| Average | 9 | — | +9.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ACM below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-07-31, AECOM (ACM) is trading 21.3% below its 200-week moving average of $91.97. The current price is $72.39.
What is ACM's 200-week moving average price?
AECOM's 200-week moving average is $91.97 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ACM drops below its 200-week moving average?
ACM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 27 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +9.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 9 weeks on average.
Is ACM a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ACM as of 2026-07-31: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 39. Return on equity is 28.6%. Price-to-book is 4.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ACM compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 18.3 years, $100 invested in ACM would have grown to $263, compared to $755 for the S&P 500. That's 5.4% annualized vs 11.7% for the index. ACM has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does ACM pay a dividend?
Yes. AECOM currently pays a dividend yield of 166.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31