ACIW
ACI Worldwide, Inc. Technology - Payment Software Investor Relations →
ACI Worldwide, Inc. (ACIW) closed at $44.09 as of 2026-06-19, trading 17.6% above its 200-week moving average of $37.50. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 20.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 60, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.5x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.87 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1586 weeks of data, ACIW has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times. On average, these episodes lasted 28 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -4.6%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $4.5 billion, ACIW is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.8%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 13.8%. The stock trades at 3.0x book value.
Over the past 30.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ACIW would have grown to $767, compared to $1985 for the S&P 500. ACIW has returned 6.9% annualized vs 10.3% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 40.9% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ACIW vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ACIW Crosses Below the Line?
Across 18 historical episodes, buying ACIW when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -10.2% after 12 months (median -10.0%), compared to +10.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 39% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -16.6% vs +13.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ACIW crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ACIW would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ACIW's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-06.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $34.45 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $36.91 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $39.76 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $43.08 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $47.01 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ACIW's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ACIW has crossed below its 200-week MA 18 times with an average 1-year return of +-4.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1999 | May 1999 | 3 | 2.6% | -19.0% | +326.7% |
| May 1999 | May 1999 | 1 | 1.3% | -63.5% | +315.0% |
| Jul 1999 | Nov 1999 | 17 | 24.7% | -37.6% | +323.3% |
| Dec 1999 | Feb 2000 | 10 | 39.0% | -46.0% | +394.5% |
| Mar 2000 | Aug 2003 | 180 | 77.1% | -77.6% | +289.0% |
| Aug 2007 | Sep 2010 | 162 | 63.9% | -34.9% | +401.8% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 5 | 10.0% | +8.6% | +146.3% |
| Aug 2016 | Feb 2017 | 27 | 12.4% | +16.0% | +132.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 16.1% | +78.1% | +99.6% |
| Apr 2020 | Apr 2020 | 1 | 7.2% | +67.2% | +82.6% |
| May 2020 | May 2020 | 1 | 6.8% | +63.7% | +81.1% |
| Jun 2020 | Jul 2020 | 3 | 2.7% | +45.4% | +67.9% |
| Sep 2020 | Sep 2020 | 3 | 8.2% | +30.0% | +78.8% |
| Oct 2021 | Oct 2021 | 1 | 2.1% | -27.3% | +46.2% |
| Oct 2021 | Nov 2021 | 1 | 0.8% | -19.4% | +43.7% |
| Nov 2021 | Dec 2021 | 2 | 4.6% | -31.1% | +45.4% |
| Mar 2022 | Mar 2022 | 1 | 0.7% | -24.8% | +39.5% |
| Mar 2022 | Dec 2023 | 89 | 35.1% | -10.2% | +46.7% |
| Average | 28 | — | +-4.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ACIW below its 200-week moving average?
No. ACI Worldwide, Inc. (ACIW) is currently 17.6% above its 200-week moving average of $37.50. It would need to fall to $37.50 to cross below the line.
What is ACIW's 200-week moving average price?
ACI Worldwide, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $37.50 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ACIW drops below its 200-week moving average?
ACIW has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -4.6%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 28 weeks on average.
Is ACIW a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ACIW as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 60. Free cash flow yield is 5.8%. Return on equity is 13.8%. Price-to-book is 3.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ACIW compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 30.5 years, $100 invested in ACIW would have grown to $767, compared to $1985 for the S&P 500. That's 6.9% annualized vs 10.3% for the index. ACIW has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19