ACGL
Arch Capital Group Ltd. Financial Services - Insurance - Diversified Investor Relations →
Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) closed at $91.18 as of 2026-06-19, trading 10.0% above its 200-week moving average of $82.92. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 10.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 45, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.5x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.94 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1557 weeks of data, ACGL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times. On average, these episodes lasted 18 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ACGL at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +20.8%.
With a market cap of $31.9 billion, ACGL is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 16.6%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 21.3%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 1.4x book value.
Management has been repurchasing shares, with a 3.1% reduction over three years. ACGL passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 29.9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ACGL would have grown to $5114, compared to $1916 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.1% vs 10.4% for the index — confirming ACGL as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 17.6% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ACGL vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ACGL Crosses Below the Line?
Across 14 historical episodes, buying ACGL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +18.2% after 12 months (median +31.0%), compared to +23.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 64% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +25.6% vs +35.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ACGL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ACGL would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ACGL's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-28.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $89.80 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $93.21 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $96.88 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $100.85 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $105.16 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ACGL's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ACGL has crossed below its 200-week MA 14 times with an average 1-year return of +20.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1996 | May 1997 | 38 | 18.0% | +31.8% | +5130.3% |
| May 1997 | Jun 1997 | 2 | 4.0% | +30.9% | +4442.1% |
| Sep 1998 | Sep 1998 | 1 | 3.2% | -25.0% | +4215.0% |
| Oct 1998 | Oct 1998 | 2 | 4.3% | -30.5% | +4109.7% |
| Nov 1998 | Dec 1998 | 1 | 1.1% | -37.0% | +4109.7% |
| Jan 1999 | Sep 2001 | 136 | 40.0% | -26.2% | +4109.7% |
| Sep 2001 | Oct 2001 | 5 | 9.3% | +76.5% | +5283.6% |
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2008 | 2 | 4.7% | +20.1% | +1402.7% |
| Jan 2009 | Aug 2009 | 31 | 23.8% | +18.9% | +1334.7% |
| Oct 2018 | Oct 2018 | 1 | 0.1% | +52.8% | +259.1% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 5 | 5.5% | +55.4% | +257.0% |
| Mar 2020 | Aug 2020 | 20 | 27.8% | +42.1% | +269.2% |
| Aug 2020 | Nov 2020 | 12 | 11.7% | +36.2% | +210.3% |
| Jan 2021 | Feb 2021 | 1 | 3.4% | +44.5% | +205.3% |
| Average | 18 | — | +20.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ACGL below its 200-week moving average?
No. Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) is currently 10.0% above its 200-week moving average of $82.92. It would need to fall to $82.92 to cross below the line.
What is ACGL's 200-week moving average price?
Arch Capital Group Ltd.'s 200-week moving average is $82.92 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ACGL drops below its 200-week moving average?
ACGL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +20.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 18 weeks on average.
Is ACGL a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ACGL as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 45. Free cash flow yield is 16.6%. Return on equity is 21.3%. Price-to-book is 1.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ACGL compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 29.9 years, $100 invested in ACGL would have grown to $5114, compared to $1916 for the S&P 500. That's 14.1% annualized vs 10.4% for the index. ACGL has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19