ACGL
Arch Capital Group Ltd. Financial Services - Insurance - Diversified Investor Relations →
Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) closed at $100.95 as of 2026-02-02, trading 29.4% above its 200-week moving average of $78.04. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 23.5% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 72, ACGL is in overbought territory.
Over the past 1538 weeks of data, ACGL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times. On average, these episodes lasted 18 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ACGL at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +20.8%.
With a market cap of $37.7 billion, ACGL is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 17.8%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 17.8%, a solid level. The stock trades at 1.6x book value.
ACGL passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 29.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ACGL would have grown to $5662, compared to $1762 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.6% vs 10.2% for the index — confirming ACGL as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 25.1% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Growth of $100: ACGL vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ACGL Crosses Below the Line?
Across 14 historical episodes, buying ACGL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +18.2% after 12 months (median +31.0%), compared to +23.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 64% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +25.6% vs +35.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ACGL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
ACGL has crossed below its 200-week MA 14 times with an average 1-year return of +20.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1996 | May 1997 | 38 | 18.0% | +31.8% | +5690.7% |
| May 1997 | Jun 1997 | 2 | 4.0% | +30.9% | +4928.8% |
| Sep 1998 | Sep 1998 | 1 | 3.2% | -25.0% | +4677.3% |
| Oct 1998 | Oct 1998 | 2 | 4.3% | -30.5% | +4560.8% |
| Nov 1998 | Dec 1998 | 1 | 1.1% | -37.0% | +4560.8% |
| Jan 1999 | Sep 2001 | 136 | 40.0% | -26.2% | +4560.8% |
| Sep 2001 | Oct 2001 | 5 | 9.3% | +76.5% | +5860.5% |
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2008 | 2 | 4.7% | +20.1% | +1563.7% |
| Jan 2009 | Aug 2009 | 31 | 23.8% | +18.9% | +1488.5% |
| Oct 2018 | Oct 2018 | 1 | 0.1% | +52.8% | +297.6% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 5 | 5.5% | +55.4% | +295.2% |
| Mar 2020 | Aug 2020 | 20 | 27.8% | +42.1% | +308.8% |
| Aug 2020 | Nov 2020 | 12 | 11.7% | +36.2% | +243.6% |
| Jan 2021 | Feb 2021 | 1 | 3.4% | +44.5% | +238.0% |
| Average | 18 | — | +20.8% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02