ACAD
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. Healthcare - Biotechnology Investor Relations →
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACAD) closed at $21.62 as of 2026-06-19, trading 4.5% above its 200-week moving average of $20.69. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 2.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 58, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 14 weeks, up-weeks have carried more volume than down-weeks (1.59 buyers-vs-sellers ratio). When trading picks up, it's more often on days the price is rising — buyers are showing more interest than sellers.
Over the past 1103 weeks of data, ACAD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 15 times. On average, these episodes lasted 39 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ACAD at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +142.3%.
With a market cap of $3.7 billion, ACAD is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.2%. Return on equity stands at 37.3%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 3.0x book value.
Share count has increased 5.1% over three years, indicating dilution. ACAD passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 21.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ACAD would have grown to $247, compared to $923 for the S&P 500. ACAD has returned 4.4% annualized vs 11.1% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ACAD vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ACAD Crosses Below the Line?
Across 15 historical episodes, buying ACAD when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +142.8% after 12 months (median +11.0%), compared to +13.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 57% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +157.1% vs +24.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ACAD crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ACAD would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ACAD's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-05.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $19.86 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $20.58 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $21.35 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $22.18 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $23.07 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ACAD's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ACAD has crossed below its 200-week MA 15 times with an average 1-year return of +142.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2006 | Oct 2006 | 17 | 39.4% | +70.5% | +143.7% |
| Dec 2006 | Mar 2007 | 12 | 23.8% | +25.6% | +146.0% |
| Feb 2008 | Mar 2012 | 211 | 91.2% | -91.6% | +117.9% |
| Apr 2012 | Jun 2012 | 11 | 17.0% | +714.3% | +1303.9% |
| Jul 2012 | Aug 2012 | 1 | 1.1% | +1251.7% | +1331.8% |
| Jan 2016 | Mar 2016 | 9 | 15.3% | +54.3% | +4.5% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 4 | 19.2% | +49.6% | -8.7% |
| Nov 2016 | Dec 2016 | 3 | 5.5% | +11.1% | -20.4% |
| May 2017 | Jul 2017 | 10 | 12.8% | -36.1% | -25.5% |
| Nov 2017 | Jul 2019 | 90 | 57.7% | -34.1% | -24.4% |
| Sep 2019 | Sep 2019 | 1 | 12.4% | +60.8% | -9.2% |
| Mar 2021 | Jul 2023 | 122 | 54.1% | -14.3% | -20.0% |
| Jul 2023 | Dec 2023 | 20 | 28.6% | -34.1% | -25.6% |
| Jan 2024 | May 2025 | 69 | 41.8% | -35.6% | -20.8% |
| Oct 2025 | Oct 2025 | 1 | 0.6% | N/A | +7.8% |
| Average | 39 | — | +142.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ACAD below its 200-week moving average?
No. ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACAD) is currently 4.5% above its 200-week moving average of $20.69. It would need to fall to $20.69 to cross below the line.
What is ACAD's 200-week moving average price?
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $20.69 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ACAD drops below its 200-week moving average?
ACAD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 15 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +142.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 39 weeks on average.
Is ACAD a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ACAD as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 58. Free cash flow yield is 4.2%. Return on equity is 37.3%. Price-to-book is 3.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ACAD compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 21.2 years, $100 invested in ACAD would have grown to $247, compared to $923 for the S&P 500. That's 4.4% annualized vs 11.1% for the index. ACAD has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19