ABR
Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. Real Estate - REIT - Mortgage Investor Relations →
Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. (ABR) closed at $5.20 as of 2026-06-19, trading 45.6% below its 200-week moving average of $9.56. This places ABR in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -45.7% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 26, ABR is in oversold territory.
Over the past 14 weeks, down-weeks have had more trading volume than up-weeks (0.69 buyers-vs-sellers ratio). That means when people are active, they're more often selling than buying. Sellers are still more in control than buyers.
Over the past 1110 weeks of data, ABR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times. On average, these episodes lasted 40 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ABR at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +31.8%.
With a market cap of $1084 million, ABR is a small-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 4.1%. The stock trades at 0.5x book value.
Share count has increased 9.7% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 21.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ABR would have grown to $128, compared to $938 for the S&P 500. ABR has returned 1.2% annualized vs 11.1% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -30.3% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ABR vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ABR Crosses Below the Line?
Across 8 historical episodes, buying ABR when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +66.0% after 12 months (median +30.0%), compared to +24.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 57% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +100.2% vs +36.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ABR crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ABR would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ABR's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-31.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $5.45 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $6.06 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $6.84 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $7.84 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $9.18 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ABR's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ABR has crossed below its 200-week MA 8 times with an average 1-year return of +31.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2007 | Feb 2012 | 237 | 96.3% | -42.9% | +18.9% |
| Mar 2020 | Jun 2020 | 12 | 53.4% | +118.1% | +21.8% |
| Jun 2020 | Jul 2020 | 3 | 8.0% | +127.2% | +16.8% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 3 | 5.3% | +48.3% | -28.5% |
| Mar 2023 | May 2023 | 8 | 14.9% | +31.1% | -30.6% |
| Feb 2025 | Feb 2025 | 1 | 1.8% | -29.8% | -47.7% |
| Mar 2025 | Aug 2025 | 19 | 17.0% | -29.3% | -48.5% |
| Oct 2025 | Ongoing | 34+ | 45.7% | Ongoing | -43.1% |
| Average | 40 | — | +31.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ABR below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. (ABR) is trading 45.6% below its 200-week moving average of $9.56. The current price is $5.20.
What is ABR's 200-week moving average price?
Arbor Realty Trust, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $9.56 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ABR drops below its 200-week moving average?
ABR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +31.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 40 weeks on average.
Is ABR a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ABR as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 26 (oversold). Return on equity is 4.1%. Price-to-book is 0.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ABR compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 21.3 years, $100 invested in ABR would have grown to $128, compared to $938 for the S&P 500. That's 1.2% annualized vs 11.1% for the index. ABR has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does ABR pay a dividend?
Yes. Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 2074.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19