ABR
Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. Real Estate - REIT - Mortgage Investor Relations →
Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. (ABR) closed at $5.01 as of 2026-07-31, trading 47.1% below its 200-week moving average of $9.47. This places ABR in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -47.4% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 14, ABR is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.95 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1116 weeks of data, ABR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times. On average, these episodes lasted 40 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ABR at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +35.1%.
Return on equity stands at 4.1%. The stock trades at 0.4x book value.
Share count has increased 9.7% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 21.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ABR would have grown to $124, compared to $935 for the S&P 500. ABR has returned 1.0% annualized vs 11.0% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -30.3% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ABR vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ABR Crosses Below the Line?
Across 8 historical episodes, buying ABR when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +61.7% after 12 months (median +30.0%), compared to +24.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 57% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +101.6% vs +37.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ABR crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ABR would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ABR's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $5.03 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $5.69 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $6.56 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $7.74 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $9.43 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ABR's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ABR has crossed below its 200-week MA 8 times with an average 1-year return of +35.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2007 | Feb 2012 | 237 | 96.3% | -42.9% | +14.5% |
| Mar 2020 | Jun 2020 | 12 | 53.5% | +118.1% | +17.3% |
| Jul 2020 | Jul 2020 | 2 | 8.2% | +150.0% | +21.5% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 3 | 5.5% | +48.3% | -31.1% |
| Mar 2023 | May 2023 | 8 | 15.1% | +31.1% | -33.1% |
| Feb 2025 | Feb 2025 | 1 | 2.0% | -29.8% | -49.6% |
| Mar 2025 | Aug 2025 | 19 | 17.2% | -29.3% | -50.4% |
| Oct 2025 | Ongoing | 40+ | 47.4% | Ongoing | -45.2% |
| Average | 40 | — | +35.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ABR below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-07-31, Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. (ABR) is trading 47.1% below its 200-week moving average of $9.47. The current price is $5.01.
What is ABR's 200-week moving average price?
Arbor Realty Trust, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $9.47 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ABR drops below its 200-week moving average?
ABR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +35.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 40 weeks on average.
Is ABR a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ABR as of 2026-07-31: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 14 (oversold). Return on equity is 4.1%. Price-to-book is 0.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ABR compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 21.4 years, $100 invested in ABR would have grown to $124, compared to $935 for the S&P 500. That's 1.0% annualized vs 11.0% for the index. ABR has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does ABR pay a dividend?
Yes. Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 2234.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31