ABR
Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. Real Estate - REIT - Mortgage Investor Relations →
Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. (ABR) closed at $7.51 as of 2026-03-20, trading 25.1% below its 200-week moving average of $10.03. This places ABR in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -26.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 38, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.34 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1097 weeks of data, ABR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times. On average, these episodes lasted 38 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ABR at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +42.0%.
With a market cap of $1591 million, ABR is a small-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 5.1%. The stock trades at 0.6x book value.
Share count has increased 9.7% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 21.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ABR would have grown to $180, compared to $813 for the S&P 500. ABR has returned 2.8% annualized vs 10.4% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 10 open-market purchases totaling $2,899,312. Multiple insiders purchased within a 30-day window — a cluster buy pattern that historically signals management confidence in the company's prospects. Notably, these purchases occurred while ABR is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -30.3% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ABR vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ABR Crosses Below the Line?
Across 8 historical episodes, buying ABR when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +66.0% after 12 months (median +30.0%), compared to +24.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 57% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +100.2% vs +36.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ABR crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
ABR has crossed below its 200-week MA 8 times with an average 1-year return of +42.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2007 | Feb 2012 | 237 | 96.3% | -42.9% | +66.8% |
| Mar 2020 | Jun 2020 | 12 | 53.4% | +118.1% | +70.8% |
| Jun 2020 | Jul 2020 | 3 | 8.0% | +127.2% | +63.9% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 3 | 5.3% | +48.3% | +0.3% |
| Mar 2023 | May 2023 | 8 | 14.9% | +31.1% | -2.6% |
| Feb 2025 | Feb 2025 | 1 | 1.8% | -29.8% | -26.7% |
| Mar 2025 | Aug 2025 | 19 | 17.0% | N/A | -27.8% |
| Oct 2025 | Ongoing | 21+ | 28.7% | Ongoing | -20.2% |
| Average | 38 | — | +42.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ABR below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-03-20, Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. (ABR) is trading 25.1% below its 200-week moving average of $10.03. The current price is $7.51.
What is ABR's 200-week moving average price?
Arbor Realty Trust, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $10.03 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ABR drops below its 200-week moving average?
ABR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +42.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 38 weeks on average.
Is ABR a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ABR as of 2026-03-20: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 38. Return on equity is 5.1%. Price-to-book is 0.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ABR compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 21.1 years, $100 invested in ABR would have grown to $180, compared to $813 for the S&P 500. That's 2.8% annualized vs 10.4% for the index. ABR has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does ABR pay a dividend?
Yes. Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 1598.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20