ABR
Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. Real Estate - REIT - Mortgage Investor Relations →
Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. (ABR) closed at $7.80 as of 2026-02-02, trading 25.6% below its 200-week moving average of $10.49. This places ABR in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -26.7% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 23, ABR is in oversold territory.
Over the past 1091 weeks of data, ABR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times. On average, these episodes lasted 37 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ABR at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +56.4%.
With a market cap of $1653 million, ABR is a small-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 6.6%. The stock trades at 0.7x book value.
Share count has increased 25.0% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 21 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ABR would have grown to $180, compared to $863 for the S&P 500. ABR has returned 2.8% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 28.6% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Growth of $100: ABR vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ABR Crosses Below the Line?
Across 8 historical episodes, buying ABR when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +80.7% after 12 months (median +48.0%), compared to +26.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +100.2% vs +36.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ABR crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
ABR has crossed below its 200-week MA 8 times with an average 1-year return of +56.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2007 | Feb 2012 | 237 | 96.3% | -42.9% | +67.1% |
| Mar 2020 | Jun 2020 | 12 | 53.4% | +118.1% | +71.1% |
| Jun 2020 | Jul 2020 | 3 | 8.0% | +127.2% | +64.2% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 3 | 5.3% | +48.3% | +0.5% |
| Mar 2023 | May 2023 | 8 | 14.9% | +31.1% | -2.4% |
| Feb 2025 | Feb 2025 | 1 | 1.8% | N/A | -26.5% |
| Mar 2025 | Aug 2025 | 19 | 17.0% | N/A | -27.6% |
| Oct 2025 | Ongoing | 15+ | 26.7% | Ongoing | -20.1% |
| Average | 37 | — | +56.4% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02