ABEV
Ambev Consumer Defensive Investor Relations →
Ambev (ABEV) closed at $3.02 as of 2026-09-11, trading 25.6% above its 200-week moving average of $2.41. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 25.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 46, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.10 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1492 weeks of data, ABEV has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times. On average, these episodes lasted 40 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -3.8%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $46.6 billion, ABEV is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 42.6%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 18.4%, a solid level. The stock trades at 2.7x book value.
ABEV passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 28.7 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ABEV would have grown to $1688, compared to $1188 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 10.4% vs 9.0% for the index — confirming ABEV as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 12.1% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ABEV vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ABEV Crosses Below the Line?
Across 16 historical episodes, buying ABEV when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +0.3% after 12 months (median -4.0%), compared to +11.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 38% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +17.4% vs +27.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ABEV crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ABEV would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ABEV's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $2.80 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $2.97 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $3.15 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $3.36 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $3.60 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | $0.03 | $0.04 | +24.9% |
| 2026-05-05 | $0.04 | $0.05 | +14.0% |
| 2026-02-12 | $0.05 | $0.05 | -0.9% |
| 2025-10-30 | $0.04 | $0.04 | +9.6% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ABEV's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ABEV has crossed below its 200-week MA 16 times with an average 1-year return of +-3.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1998 | Mar 1998 | 7 | 4.3% | -41.4% | +1556.7% |
| Apr 1998 | Apr 2000 | 102 | 44.3% | -28.5% | +1585.3% |
| Jun 2002 | Apr 2003 | 43 | 20.3% | +38.1% | +1456.9% |
| Sep 2008 | Apr 2009 | 30 | 31.8% | +74.5% | +237.0% |
| Nov 2014 | Nov 2014 | 1 | 2.0% | -16.7% | -24.7% |
| Dec 2014 | Jan 2015 | 5 | 6.7% | -18.0% | -24.9% |
| Mar 2015 | May 2015 | 9 | 11.5% | -12.6% | -24.4% |
| May 2015 | Aug 2016 | 64 | 35.3% | -11.4% | -25.4% |
| Aug 2016 | Apr 2017 | 35 | 20.4% | +10.5% | -25.5% |
| May 2017 | Jul 2017 | 8 | 6.2% | +0.1% | -24.9% |
| May 2018 | Jul 2019 | 62 | 26.3% | -24.3% | -25.0% |
| Aug 2019 | May 2023 | 195 | 59.2% | -50.0% | -20.5% |
| Sep 2023 | Oct 2023 | 8 | 8.9% | -9.8% | +27.4% |
| Feb 2024 | Apr 2025 | 59 | 26.6% | -11.9% | +32.7% |
| Jul 2025 | Sep 2025 | 6 | 6.0% | +44.5% | +40.4% |
| Sep 2025 | Oct 2025 | 4 | 7.9% | N/A | +39.6% |
| Average | 40 | — | +-3.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ABEV below its 200-week moving average?
No. Ambev (ABEV) is currently 25.6% above its 200-week moving average of $2.41. It would need to fall to $2.41 to cross below the line.
What is ABEV's 200-week moving average price?
Ambev's 200-week moving average is $2.41 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ABEV drops below its 200-week moving average?
ABEV has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -3.8%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 40 weeks on average.
Is ABEV a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ABEV as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 46. Free cash flow yield is 42.6%. Return on equity is 18.4%. Price-to-book is 2.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ABEV compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 28.7 years, $100 invested in ABEV would have grown to $1688, compared to $1188 for the S&P 500. That's 10.4% annualized vs 9.0% for the index. ABEV has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does ABEV pay a dividend?
Yes. Ambev currently pays a dividend yield of 528.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11