ABEV
Ambev Consumer Defensive Investor Relations →
Ambev (ABEV) closed at $3.25 as of 2026-06-12, trading 37.0% above its 200-week moving average of $2.37. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 31.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 58, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.18 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1479 weeks of data, ABEV has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times. On average, these episodes lasted 40 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -6.9%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $50.4 billion, ABEV is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 36.1%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 17.3%, a solid level. The stock trades at 2.9x book value.
ABEV passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 28.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ABEV would have grown to $1812, compared to $1150 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 10.7% vs 9.0% for the index — confirming ABEV as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 12.1% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ABEV vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ABEV Crosses Below the Line?
Across 16 historical episodes, buying ABEV when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -5.4% after 12 months (median -11.0%), compared to +10.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 29% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +17.4% vs +27.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ABEV crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ABEV's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ABEV has crossed below its 200-week MA 16 times with an average 1-year return of +-6.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1998 | Mar 1998 | 7 | 4.3% | -41.4% | +1677.8% |
| Apr 1998 | Apr 2000 | 102 | 44.3% | -27.7% | +1729.0% |
| Jun 2002 | Apr 2003 | 43 | 20.2% | +38.1% | +1570.7% |
| Sep 2008 | Apr 2009 | 30 | 31.7% | +77.6% | +267.9% |
| Nov 2014 | Nov 2014 | 1 | 1.9% | -16.7% | -19.1% |
| Dec 2014 | Jan 2015 | 5 | 6.6% | -18.0% | -19.4% |
| Mar 2015 | May 2015 | 9 | 11.4% | -12.2% | -18.5% |
| May 2015 | Aug 2016 | 64 | 35.2% | -11.4% | -20.0% |
| Aug 2016 | Apr 2017 | 35 | 20.3% | +10.5% | -20.1% |
| May 2017 | Jul 2017 | 8 | 6.1% | +0.1% | -19.4% |
| May 2018 | Jul 2019 | 62 | 27.8% | -24.3% | -19.5% |
| Aug 2019 | May 2023 | 195 | 59.2% | -50.0% | -14.7% |
| Sep 2023 | Oct 2023 | 8 | 8.9% | -9.8% | +36.7% |
| Feb 2024 | Apr 2025 | 59 | 26.5% | -11.9% | +42.4% |
| Jul 2025 | Sep 2025 | 6 | 5.9% | N/A | +50.6% |
| Sep 2025 | Oct 2025 | 4 | 7.8% | N/A | +49.8% |
| Average | 40 | — | +-6.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ABEV below its 200-week moving average?
No. Ambev (ABEV) is currently 37.0% above its 200-week moving average of $2.37. It would need to fall to $2.37 to cross below the line.
What is ABEV's 200-week moving average price?
Ambev's 200-week moving average is $2.37 as of 2026-06-12. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ABEV drops below its 200-week moving average?
ABEV has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -6.9%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 40 weeks on average.
Is ABEV a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ABEV as of 2026-06-12: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 58. Free cash flow yield is 36.1%. Return on equity is 17.3%. Price-to-book is 2.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ABEV compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 28.4 years, $100 invested in ABEV would have grown to $1812, compared to $1150 for the S&P 500. That's 10.7% annualized vs 9.0% for the index. ABEV has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does ABEV pay a dividend?
Yes. Ambev currently pays a dividend yield of 476.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-12