AAPL
Apple Inc. Technology - Consumer Electronics Investor Relations →
Apple Inc. (AAPL) closed at $298.01 as of 2026-06-19, trading 45.0% above its 200-week moving average of $205.52. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 42.1% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 76, AAPL is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.89 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2327 weeks of data, AAPL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times. On average, these episodes lasted 28 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AAPL at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +16.6%.
With a market cap of $4.4 trillion, AAPL is a mega-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.3%. Return on equity stands at 141.5%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 41.0x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 7.3% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AAPL would have grown to $69488, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 21.6% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming AAPL as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -3.9% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AAPL vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AAPL Crosses Below the Line?
Across 11 historical episodes, buying AAPL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +1.0% after 12 months (median -32.0%), compared to +11.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 30% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +81.3% vs +32.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AAPL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices AAPL would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where AAPL's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-30.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $220.00 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $238.40 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $260.16 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $286.28 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $318.24 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from AAPL's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
AAPL has crossed below its 200-week MA 22 times with an average 1-year return of +16.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1981 | Oct 1982 | 46 | 48.3% | +62.5% | +459070.4% |
| Sep 1983 | Jan 1984 | 15 | 27.7% | +10.8% | +359660.4% |
| Jan 1984 | Feb 1984 | 4 | 10.1% | +13.4% | +333841.8% |
| Mar 1984 | Apr 1984 | 6 | 13.2% | -18.5% | +330674.0% |
| Jun 1984 | Jul 1984 | 5 | 7.6% | -32.1% | +329113.7% |
| Aug 1984 | Dec 1984 | 16 | 16.1% | -43.4% | +329113.7% |
| Feb 1985 | Mar 1986 | 55 | 44.5% | +0.5% | +350621.8% |
| Mar 1986 | Apr 1986 | 1 | 0.3% | +168.2% | +326037.2% |
| Dec 1989 | Dec 1989 | 1 | 3.2% | +19.6% | +126179.7% |
| Jan 1990 | Mar 1990 | 8 | 7.8% | +37.9% | +123434.3% |
| Aug 1990 | Dec 1990 | 16 | 28.3% | +47.5% | +115968.3% |
| Jun 1991 | Jul 1991 | 3 | 1.2% | +34.0% | +101786.6% |
| Jun 1992 | Jun 1992 | 1 | 0.1% | -7.5% | +92737.5% |
| Aug 1992 | Aug 1992 | 3 | 3.6% | -31.9% | +95680.5% |
| Sep 1992 | Oct 1992 | 2 | 4.1% | -47.4% | +94605.0% |
| Jun 1993 | May 1995 | 100 | 51.1% | -38.5% | +94001.6% |
| May 1995 | Jun 1995 | 2 | 1.1% | -36.8% | +93989.8% |
| Sep 1995 | May 1998 | 138 | 54.8% | -41.3% | +111243.2% |
| May 1998 | Jun 1998 | 6 | 6.1% | +57.6% | +142753.4% |
| Oct 2000 | Feb 2004 | 177 | 53.7% | -27.3% | +89636.2% |
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2008 | 1 | 0.6% | +111.6% | +10229.0% |
| Nov 2008 | Mar 2009 | 19 | 17.8% | +126.6% | +10931.8% |
| Average | 28 | — | +16.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AAPL below its 200-week moving average?
No. Apple Inc. (AAPL) is currently 45.0% above its 200-week moving average of $205.52. It would need to fall to $205.52 to cross below the line.
What is AAPL's 200-week moving average price?
Apple Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $205.52 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AAPL drops below its 200-week moving average?
AAPL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +16.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 28 weeks on average.
Is AAPL a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AAPL as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 76 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 2.3%. Return on equity is 141.5%. Price-to-book is 41.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AAPL compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in AAPL would have grown to $69488, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 21.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. AAPL has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does AAPL pay a dividend?
Yes. Apple Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 36.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19