AAPL
Apple Inc. Technology - Consumer Electronics Investor Relations →
Apple Inc. (AAPL) closed at $278.12 as of 2026-02-02, trading 43.4% above its 200-week moving average of $193.90. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 34.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 55, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 2308 weeks of data, AAPL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times. On average, these episodes lasted 28 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AAPL at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +16.6%.
With a market cap of $4.1 trillion, AAPL is a mega-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.6%. Return on equity stands at 152.0%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 46.4x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 7.3% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AAPL would have grown to $64730, compared to $2849 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 21.6% vs 10.6% for the index — confirming AAPL as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -3.9% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: AAPL vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AAPL Crosses Below the Line?
Across 11 historical episodes, buying AAPL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +1.0% after 12 months (median -32.0%), compared to +11.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 30% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +81.3% vs +32.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AAPL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
AAPL has crossed below its 200-week MA 22 times with an average 1-year return of +16.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1981 | Oct 1982 | 46 | 48.3% | +62.5% | +427629.6% |
| Sep 1983 | Jan 1984 | 15 | 27.7% | +10.8% | +335026.3% |
| Jan 1984 | Feb 1984 | 4 | 10.1% | +13.4% | +310975.7% |
| Mar 1984 | Apr 1984 | 6 | 13.2% | -18.5% | +308024.7% |
| Jun 1984 | Jul 1984 | 5 | 7.6% | -32.1% | +306571.3% |
| Aug 1984 | Dec 1984 | 16 | 16.1% | -43.4% | +306571.3% |
| Feb 1985 | Mar 1986 | 55 | 44.5% | +0.5% | +326606.5% |
| Mar 1986 | Apr 1986 | 1 | 0.3% | +168.2% | +303705.5% |
| Dec 1989 | Dec 1989 | 1 | 3.2% | +19.6% | +117532.9% |
| Jan 1990 | Mar 1990 | 8 | 7.8% | +37.9% | +114975.4% |
| Aug 1990 | Dec 1990 | 16 | 28.3% | +47.5% | +108020.7% |
| Jun 1991 | Jul 1991 | 3 | 1.2% | +34.0% | +94810.1% |
| Jun 1992 | Jun 1992 | 1 | 0.1% | -7.5% | +86380.6% |
| Aug 1992 | Aug 1992 | 3 | 3.6% | -31.9% | +89122.2% |
| Sep 1992 | Oct 1992 | 2 | 4.1% | -47.4% | +88120.3% |
| Jun 1993 | May 1995 | 100 | 51.1% | -38.5% | +87558.2% |
| May 1995 | Jun 1995 | 2 | 1.1% | -36.8% | +87547.2% |
| Sep 1995 | May 1998 | 138 | 54.8% | -41.3% | +103619.1% |
| May 1998 | Jun 1998 | 6 | 6.1% | +57.6% | +132971.6% |
| Oct 2000 | Feb 2004 | 177 | 53.7% | -27.3% | +83491.6% |
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2008 | 1 | 0.6% | +111.6% | +9521.7% |
| Nov 2008 | Mar 2009 | 19 | 17.8% | +126.6% | +10176.4% |
| Average | 28 | — | +16.6% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02