AAP
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. Consumer Cyclical - Auto Parts Investor Relations →
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP) closed at $42.55 as of 2026-09-18, trading 32.1% below its 200-week moving average of $62.69. This places AAP in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -29.3% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 25, AAP is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.76 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1246 weeks of data, AAP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 19 times. On average, these episodes lasted 19 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AAP at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +12.0%.
With a market cap of $2.6 billion, AAP is a mid-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 4.9%. The stock trades at 1.1x book value.
Over the past 23.9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AAP would have grown to $298, compared to $1253 for the S&P 500. AAP has returned 4.7% annualized vs 11.2% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AAP vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AAP Crosses Below the Line?
Across 19 historical episodes, buying AAP when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +7.4% after 12 months (median +10.0%), compared to +3.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 63% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +26.5% vs +16.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AAP crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices AAP would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where AAP's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-05.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $22.17 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $27.95 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $37.81 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $58.40 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $128.30 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | $0.80 | $1.03 | +28.2% |
| 2026-05-21 | $0.44 | $0.77 | +75.6% |
| 2026-02-13 | $0.41 | $0.86 | +109.3% |
| 2025-10-30 | $0.74 | $0.92 | +23.5% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from AAP's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
AAP has crossed below its 200-week MA 19 times with an average 1-year return of +12.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2002 | Apr 2003 | 19 | 21.2% | +63.3% | +218.5% |
| Jun 2006 | Jul 2006 | 3 | 0.2% | +41.2% | +76.6% |
| Aug 2006 | Aug 2006 | 3 | 1.3% | +10.6% | +76.3% |
| Jul 2007 | Aug 2007 | 3 | 6.9% | +25.6% | +50.6% |
| Sep 2007 | Oct 2007 | 4 | 1.9% | +25.8% | +50.4% |
| Oct 2007 | Oct 2007 | 2 | 6.6% | -13.4% | +57.8% |
| Nov 2007 | Nov 2007 | 1 | 0.8% | -21.9% | +47.8% |
| Jan 2008 | Jan 2008 | 3 | 8.7% | -0.2% | +57.7% |
| Feb 2008 | May 2008 | 13 | 6.4% | -1.8% | +50.1% |
| Sep 2008 | Feb 2009 | 20 | 29.7% | +2.6% | +36.9% |
| Mar 2009 | Mar 2009 | 1 | 1.1% | +16.8% | +37.8% |
| Oct 2009 | Oct 2009 | 1 | 0.6% | +68.1% | +36.2% |
| Apr 2017 | May 2017 | 3 | 0.7% | -24.2% | -65.3% |
| May 2017 | Jul 2018 | 62 | 43.8% | -6.7% | -63.5% |
| Aug 2019 | Sep 2019 | 3 | 5.8% | +16.8% | -64.3% |
| Jan 2020 | Jun 2020 | 21 | 47.1% | +16.5% | -65.6% |
| Jul 2020 | Jul 2020 | 1 | 3.2% | +60.3% | -63.9% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 3 | 6.1% | -63.1% | -71.1% |
| Nov 2022 | Ongoing | 201+ | 72.4% | Ongoing | -68.5% |
| Average | 19 | — | +12.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AAP below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP) is trading 32.1% below its 200-week moving average of $62.69. The current price is $42.55.
What is AAP's 200-week moving average price?
Advance Auto Parts, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $62.69 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AAP drops below its 200-week moving average?
AAP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 19 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +12.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 19 weeks on average.
Is AAP a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AAP as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 25 (oversold). Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 4.9%. Price-to-book is 1.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AAP compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 23.9 years, $100 invested in AAP would have grown to $298, compared to $1253 for the S&P 500. That's 4.7% annualized vs 11.2% for the index. AAP has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does AAP pay a dividend?
Yes. Advance Auto Parts, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 238.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18