AAP
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. Consumer Cyclical - Auto Parts Investor Relations →
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP) closed at $55.30 as of 2026-02-02, trading 32.2% below its 200-week moving average of $81.58. This places AAP in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -41.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 61, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 1214 weeks of data, AAP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times. On average, these episodes lasted 17 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AAP at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +8.4%.
With a market cap of $3.3 billion, AAP is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 43.1%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at -23.9%. The stock trades at 1.5x book value.
Over the past 23.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AAP would have grown to $384, compared to $1128 for the S&P 500. AAP has returned 5.9% annualized vs 10.9% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: AAP vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AAP Crosses Below the Line?
Across 20 historical episodes, buying AAP when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +4.1% after 12 months (median +10.0%), compared to +4.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 60% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +22.1% vs +17.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AAP crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
AAP has crossed below its 200-week MA 20 times with an average 1-year return of +8.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2002 | Apr 2003 | 19 | 21.2% | +63.3% | +310.2% |
| Jun 2006 | Jul 2006 | 3 | 0.2% | +41.2% | +127.5% |
| Aug 2006 | Aug 2006 | 3 | 1.3% | +10.6% | +127.1% |
| Jul 2007 | Aug 2007 | 3 | 6.9% | +25.6% | +94.0% |
| Sep 2007 | Oct 2007 | 4 | 1.9% | +25.8% | +93.7% |
| Oct 2007 | Oct 2007 | 2 | 6.6% | -13.4% | +103.3% |
| Nov 2007 | Nov 2007 | 1 | 0.8% | -21.9% | +90.4% |
| Jan 2008 | Jan 2008 | 3 | 8.7% | -0.2% | +103.1% |
| Feb 2008 | May 2008 | 13 | 6.4% | -1.8% | +93.4% |
| Sep 2008 | Feb 2009 | 20 | 29.7% | +2.6% | +76.3% |
| Mar 2009 | Mar 2009 | 1 | 1.1% | +16.8% | +77.5% |
| Oct 2009 | Oct 2009 | 1 | 0.6% | +68.1% | +75.4% |
| Apr 2017 | May 2017 | 3 | 0.7% | -24.2% | -55.3% |
| May 2017 | Jul 2018 | 62 | 43.8% | -6.7% | -53.0% |
| Aug 2019 | Sep 2019 | 3 | 5.8% | +16.8% | -54.0% |
| Jan 2020 | Jun 2020 | 21 | 47.2% | +16.5% | -55.7% |
| Jul 2020 | Jul 2020 | 1 | 3.2% | +60.3% | -53.6% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 1 | 0.1% | -57.0% | -63.7% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 4 | 6.1% | -62.8% | -63.8% |
| Nov 2022 | Ongoing | 169+ | 72.4% | Ongoing | -59.5% |
| Average | 17 | — | +8.4% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02