AAON
AAON, Inc. Industrials - Building Products & Equipment Investor Relations →
AAON, Inc. (AAON) closed at $76.76 as of 2026-09-18, trading 8.8% below its 200-week moving average of $84.13. This places AAON in the deep value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -5.0% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 25, AAON is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.77 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1713 weeks of data, AAON has crossed below its 200-week moving average 15 times. On average, these episodes lasted 14 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AAON at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +37.5%.
With a market cap of $6.3 billion, AAON is a mid-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 17.3%, a solid level. The stock trades at 6.3x book value.
Over the past 32.9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AAON would have grown to $25574, compared to $2949 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 18.3% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming AAON as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AAON vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AAON Crosses Below the Line?
Across 14 historical episodes, buying AAON when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +35.4% after 12 months (median +36.0%), compared to +19.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 93% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +97.2% vs +42.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AAON crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. AAON currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | $0.49 | $0.69 | +39.7% |
| 2026-05-07 | $0.29 | $0.48 | +63.3% |
| 2026-03-02 | $0.46 | $0.39 | -15.2% |
| 2025-11-06 | $0.32 | $0.37 | +14.9% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from AAON's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
AAON has crossed below its 200-week MA 15 times with an average 1-year return of +37.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1995 | Jun 1997 | 114 | 45.8% | -43.1% | +19572.5% |
| Jul 1997 | Sep 1997 | 9 | 7.7% | +29.2% | +19572.5% |
| Oct 1997 | Feb 1998 | 16 | 17.6% | +9.5% | +20197.1% |
| Sep 1998 | Sep 1998 | 1 | 1.0% | +63.6% | +21035.8% |
| Sep 1998 | Oct 1998 | 1 | 0.1% | +78.5% | +21035.8% |
| Oct 2004 | Apr 2005 | 25 | 14.0% | +10.2% | +4552.2% |
| Aug 2005 | Aug 2005 | 2 | 5.4% | +44.2% | +4103.5% |
| Oct 2005 | Oct 2005 | 3 | 6.8% | +39.5% | +4006.3% |
| Nov 2005 | Nov 2005 | 2 | 4.1% | +66.4% | +4098.6% |
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2008 | 2 | 8.9% | +24.6% | +2868.7% |
| Nov 2008 | Nov 2008 | 1 | 0.0% | +25.5% | +2771.4% |
| Feb 2009 | Mar 2009 | 3 | 6.8% | +41.0% | +2769.9% |
| Mar 2022 | Jul 2022 | 17 | 10.4% | +76.1% | +125.5% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 5 | 5.8% | +59.1% | +117.1% |
| Aug 2026 | Ongoing | 5+ | 9.4% | Ongoing | -3.2% |
| Average | 14 | — | +37.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AAON below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, AAON, Inc. (AAON) is trading 8.8% below its 200-week moving average of $84.13. The current price is $76.76.
What is AAON's 200-week moving average price?
AAON, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $84.13 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AAON drops below its 200-week moving average?
AAON has crossed below its 200-week moving average 15 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +37.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 14 weeks on average.
Is AAON a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AAON as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 25 (oversold). Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 17.3%. Price-to-book is 6.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AAON compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 32.9 years, $100 invested in AAON would have grown to $25574, compared to $2949 for the S&P 500. That's 18.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. AAON has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does AAON pay a dividend?
Yes. AAON, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 52.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18