AAON
AAON, Inc. Industrials - Building Products & Equipment Investor Relations →
AAON, Inc. (AAON) closed at $93.59 as of 2026-05-01, trading 21.0% above its 200-week moving average of $77.36. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 29.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 49, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.93 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1693 weeks of data, AAON has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times. On average, these episodes lasted 15 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AAON at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +38.4%.
With a market cap of $7.7 billion, AAON is a mid-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 12.5%. The stock trades at 8.5x book value.
Over the past 32.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AAON would have grown to $31120, compared to $2768 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 19.3% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming AAON as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AAON vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AAON Crosses Below the Line?
Across 13 historical episodes, buying AAON when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +37.9% after 12 months (median +36.0%), compared to +19.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 92% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +101.0% vs +42.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AAON crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
AAON has crossed below its 200-week MA 13 times with an average 1-year return of +38.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1995 | Jun 1997 | 114 | 45.8% | -43.1% | +23838.4% |
| Jul 1997 | Sep 1997 | 9 | 7.7% | +29.2% | +23838.4% |
| Oct 1997 | Feb 1998 | 16 | 17.6% | +9.5% | +24598.4% |
| Sep 1998 | Sep 1998 | 1 | 1.0% | +63.6% | +25619.0% |
| Sep 1998 | Oct 1998 | 1 | 0.1% | +78.5% | +25619.0% |
| Oct 2004 | Apr 2005 | 25 | 14.0% | +10.2% | +5561.0% |
| Aug 2005 | Aug 2005 | 2 | 5.4% | +44.2% | +5015.0% |
| Oct 2005 | Oct 2005 | 3 | 6.8% | +39.5% | +4896.8% |
| Nov 2005 | Nov 2005 | 2 | 4.1% | +66.4% | +5009.0% |
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2008 | 2 | 8.9% | +24.6% | +3512.4% |
| Feb 2009 | Mar 2009 | 3 | 6.7% | +41.0% | +3392.3% |
| Mar 2022 | Jul 2022 | 17 | 10.4% | +76.1% | +174.4% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 5 | 5.8% | +59.1% | +164.2% |
| Average | 15 | — | +38.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AAON below its 200-week moving average?
No. AAON, Inc. (AAON) is currently 21.0% above its 200-week moving average of $77.36. It would need to fall to $77.36 to cross below the line.
What is AAON's 200-week moving average price?
AAON, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $77.36 as of 2026-05-01. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AAON drops below its 200-week moving average?
AAON has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +38.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 15 weeks on average.
Is AAON a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AAON as of 2026-05-01: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 49. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 12.5%. Price-to-book is 8.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AAON compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 32.5 years, $100 invested in AAON would have grown to $31120, compared to $2768 for the S&P 500. That's 19.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. AAON has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does AAON pay a dividend?
Yes. AAON, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 43.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-01