AAON
AAON, Inc. Industrials - Building Products & Equipment Investor Relations →
AAON, Inc. (AAON) closed at $136.72 as of 2026-06-19, trading 69.4% above its 200-week moving average of $80.69. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 58.6% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 74, AAON is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 0.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.12 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1700 weeks of data, AAON has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times. On average, these episodes lasted 15 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AAON at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +38.4%.
With a market cap of $11.2 billion, AAON is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 13.5%. The stock trades at 12.0x book value.
Over the past 32.7 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AAON would have grown to $45493, compared to $2884 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 20.6% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming AAON as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AAON vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AAON Crosses Below the Line?
Across 13 historical episodes, buying AAON when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +37.9% after 12 months (median +36.0%), compared to +19.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 92% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +101.0% vs +42.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AAON crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. AAON currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from AAON's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
AAON has crossed below its 200-week MA 13 times with an average 1-year return of +38.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1995 | Jun 1997 | 114 | 45.8% | -43.1% | +34894.6% |
| Jul 1997 | Sep 1997 | 9 | 7.7% | +29.2% | +34894.6% |
| Oct 1997 | Feb 1998 | 16 | 17.6% | +9.5% | +36005.5% |
| Sep 1998 | Sep 1998 | 1 | 1.0% | +63.6% | +37497.5% |
| Sep 1998 | Oct 1998 | 1 | 0.1% | +78.5% | +37497.5% |
| Oct 2004 | Apr 2005 | 25 | 14.0% | +10.2% | +8175.7% |
| Aug 2005 | Aug 2005 | 2 | 5.4% | +44.2% | +7377.5% |
| Oct 2005 | Oct 2005 | 3 | 6.8% | +39.5% | +7204.6% |
| Nov 2005 | Nov 2005 | 2 | 4.1% | +66.4% | +7368.6% |
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2008 | 2 | 8.9% | +24.6% | +5180.9% |
| Feb 2009 | Mar 2009 | 3 | 6.7% | +41.0% | +5005.2% |
| Mar 2022 | Jul 2022 | 17 | 10.4% | +76.1% | +301.2% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 5 | 5.8% | +59.1% | +286.3% |
| Average | 15 | — | +38.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AAON below its 200-week moving average?
No. AAON, Inc. (AAON) is currently 69.4% above its 200-week moving average of $80.69. It would need to fall to $80.69 to cross below the line.
What is AAON's 200-week moving average price?
AAON, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $80.69 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AAON drops below its 200-week moving average?
AAON has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +38.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 15 weeks on average.
Is AAON a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AAON as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 74 (overbought). Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 13.5%. Price-to-book is 12.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AAON compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 32.7 years, $100 invested in AAON would have grown to $45493, compared to $2884 for the S&P 500. That's 20.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. AAON has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19