AAON
AAON, Inc. Industrials - Building Products & Equipment Investor Relations →
AAON, Inc. (AAON) closed at $96.43 as of 2026-02-02, trading 30.3% above its 200-week moving average of $74.03. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 23.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 49, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 1681 weeks of data, AAON has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times. On average, these episodes lasted 15 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AAON at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +38.4%.
With a market cap of $7.9 billion, AAON is a mid-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 12.1%. The stock trades at 9.1x book value.
Share count has increased 3.4% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 32.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AAON would have grown to $32024, compared to $2653 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 19.5% vs 10.7% for the index — confirming AAON as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: AAON vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AAON Crosses Below the Line?
Across 13 historical episodes, buying AAON when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +37.9% after 12 months (median +36.0%), compared to +19.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 92% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +101.0% vs +42.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AAON crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
AAON has crossed below its 200-week MA 13 times with an average 1-year return of +38.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1995 | Jun 1997 | 114 | 45.8% | -43.1% | +24533.8% |
| Jul 1997 | Sep 1997 | 9 | 7.7% | +29.2% | +24533.8% |
| Oct 1997 | Feb 1998 | 16 | 17.6% | +9.5% | +25315.8% |
| Sep 1998 | Sep 1998 | 1 | 1.0% | +63.6% | +26366.1% |
| Sep 1998 | Oct 1998 | 1 | 0.1% | +78.5% | +26366.1% |
| Oct 2004 | Apr 2005 | 25 | 14.0% | +10.2% | +5725.5% |
| Aug 2005 | Aug 2005 | 2 | 5.4% | +44.2% | +5163.6% |
| Oct 2005 | Oct 2005 | 3 | 6.8% | +39.5% | +5041.9% |
| Nov 2005 | Nov 2005 | 2 | 4.1% | +66.4% | +5157.4% |
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2008 | 2 | 8.9% | +24.6% | +3617.4% |
| Feb 2009 | Mar 2009 | 3 | 6.7% | +41.0% | +3493.7% |
| Mar 2022 | Jul 2022 | 17 | 10.4% | +76.1% | +182.4% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 5 | 5.8% | +59.1% | +171.9% |
| Average | 15 | — | +38.4% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02