AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Technology - Communication Equipment Investor Relations →
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) closed at $87.54 as of 2026-03-20, trading 436.1% above its 200-week moving average of $16.33. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 508.8% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 81, AAOI is in overbought territory.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.2x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 603 weeks of data, AAOI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times. On average, these episodes lasted 63 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AAOI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +40.5%.
With a market cap of $6.8 billion, AAOI is a mid-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at -7.9%. The stock trades at 8.9x book value.
Share count has increased 162.0% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 11.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AAOI would have grown to $554, compared to $402 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 15.9% vs 12.8% for the index — confirming AAOI as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AAOI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AAOI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 5 historical episodes, buying AAOI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +55.8% after 12 months (median +15.0%), compared to +9.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 60% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +16.8% vs +24.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AAOI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
AAOI has crossed below its 200-week MA 5 times with an average 1-year return of +40.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2014 | May 2015 | 34 | 48.5% | +4.9% | +420.8% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 7 | 19.2% | +51.6% | +491.9% |
| Mar 2016 | Aug 2016 | 22 | 44.2% | +248.4% | +454.4% |
| Mar 2018 | Apr 2018 | 4 | 10.7% | -47.7% | +226.9% |
| Sep 2018 | Jul 2023 | 249 | 84.5% | -54.9% | +255.0% |
| Average | 63 | — | +40.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AAOI below its 200-week moving average?
No. Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) is currently 436.1% above its 200-week moving average of $16.33. It would need to fall to $16.33 to cross below the line.
What is AAOI's 200-week moving average price?
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $16.33 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AAOI drops below its 200-week moving average?
AAOI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +40.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 63 weeks on average.
Is AAOI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AAOI as of 2026-03-20: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 81 (overbought). Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is -7.9%. Price-to-book is 8.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AAOI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 11.6 years, $100 invested in AAOI would have grown to $554, compared to $402 for the S&P 500. That's 15.9% annualized vs 12.8% for the index. AAOI has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20