AAL
American Airlines Group Inc. Industrials - Airlines Investor Relations →
American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) closed at $10.43 as of 2026-03-20, trading 23.3% below its 200-week moving average of $13.61. This places AAL in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -24.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 30, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.92 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1020 weeks of data, AAL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times. On average, these episodes lasted 63 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -1.2%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $6.9 billion, AAL is a mid-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. The stock trades at -1.9x book value.
Over the past 19.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AAL would have grown to $25, compared to $699 for the S&P 500. AAL has returned -6.8% annualized vs 10.4% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AAL vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AAL Crosses Below the Line?
Across 9 historical episodes, buying AAL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +3.0% after 12 months (median -9.0%), compared to +10.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 38% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +12.3% vs +18.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AAL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
AAL has crossed below its 200-week MA 10 times with an average 1-year return of +-1.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2007 | May 2011 | 210 | 93.4% | -80.7% | -70.2% |
| May 2011 | Jun 2011 | 3 | 8.3% | +42.2% | +24.4% |
| Jul 2011 | Jan 2012 | 29 | 41.4% | +68.9% | +34.8% |
| May 2016 | Jul 2016 | 7 | 15.7% | +55.5% | -65.7% |
| Apr 2018 | May 2018 | 2 | 1.7% | -18.0% | -75.1% |
| Jun 2018 | Jun 2023 | 264 | 75.8% | -27.5% | -75.3% |
| Jul 2023 | Dec 2024 | 72 | 39.7% | -39.3% | -40.1% |
| Feb 2025 | Nov 2025 | 40 | 37.7% | -10.8% | -31.5% |
| Jan 2026 | Feb 2026 | 1 | 3.6% | N/A | -21.6% |
| Feb 2026 | Ongoing | 5+ | 24.5% | Ongoing | -23.3% |
| Average | 63 | — | +-1.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AAL below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-03-20, American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) is trading 23.3% below its 200-week moving average of $13.61. The current price is $10.43.
What is AAL's 200-week moving average price?
American Airlines Group Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $13.61 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AAL drops below its 200-week moving average?
AAL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -1.2%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 63 weeks on average.
Is AAL a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AAL as of 2026-03-20: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 30. Free cash flow is currently negative. Price-to-book is -1.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AAL compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 19.6 years, $100 invested in AAL would have grown to $25, compared to $699 for the S&P 500. That's -6.8% annualized vs 10.4% for the index. AAL has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20