AA
Alcoa Corporation Materials - Aluminum Investor Relations →
Alcoa Corporation (AA) closed at $44.43 as of 2026-09-18, trading 13.7% above its 200-week moving average of $39.07. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 23.5% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 20, AA is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.88 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 3328 weeks of data, AA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 51 times. On average, these episodes lasted 21 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AA at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +12.8%.
With a market cap of $11.7 billion, AA is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 8.2%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 18.2%, a solid level. The stock trades at 1.6x book value.
Share count has increased 48.7% over three years, indicating dilution. AA passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AA would have grown to $319, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. AA has returned 3.5% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 18.4% compound annual rate, with 2 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: AA vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AA Crosses Below the Line?
Across 20 historical episodes, buying AA when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -0.2% after 12 months (median +5.0%), compared to +9.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 53% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +1.7% vs +19.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AA crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices AA would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where AA's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-15.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $40.71 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $43.44 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $46.57 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $50.18 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $54.40 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | $2.19 | $2.12 | -3.2% |
| 2026-04-16 | $1.55 | $1.40 | -9.6% |
| 2026-01-22 | $1.01 | $1.26 | +24.7% |
| 2025-10-22 | $-0.05 | $-0.02 | +63.0% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
the write-ups I read Simply Wall St · Visual company reports and write-ups. Free tier covers five reports a month. referral
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from AA's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
AA has crossed below its 200-week MA 51 times with an average 1-year return of +12.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1962 | Jan 1963 | 4 | 8.7% | +29.1% | +3546.7% |
| Feb 1963 | Apr 1963 | 11 | 8.8% | +35.5% | +3349.0% |
| Oct 1964 | Nov 1964 | 4 | 2.9% | +19.7% | +3021.7% |
| Dec 1964 | Jan 1965 | 5 | 3.2% | +14.4% | +3019.2% |
| Oct 1966 | Oct 1966 | 1 | 1.7% | +29.6% | +2605.4% |
| Oct 1967 | Nov 1967 | 3 | 2.4% | +0.5% | +2351.6% |
| Jan 1968 | Sep 1968 | 35 | 13.0% | +15.2% | +2396.8% |
| Oct 1968 | Nov 1968 | 6 | 4.3% | -3.2% | +2280.3% |
| Jan 1969 | Jan 1969 | 1 | 1.1% | -3.9% | +2240.8% |
| Feb 1969 | Mar 1969 | 5 | 2.9% | -2.3% | +2219.7% |
| Jun 1969 | Oct 1969 | 18 | 12.8% | -20.2% | +2271.3% |
| Nov 1969 | Feb 1970 | 16 | 11.4% | -24.6% | +2196.9% |
| Mar 1970 | May 1971 | 61 | 31.8% | -8.8% | +2241.3% |
| Jun 1971 | Nov 1972 | 76 | 39.4% | -15.8% | +2438.7% |
| Dec 1972 | Jan 1973 | 4 | 4.5% | +39.4% | +2652.8% |
| Jan 1973 | Apr 1973 | 10 | 9.9% | +36.7% | +2713.8% |
| Sep 1974 | Mar 1975 | 22 | 28.1% | +12.7% | +2503.1% |
| Oct 1975 | Dec 1975 | 9 | 8.1% | +55.7% | +2511.3% |
| Sep 1977 | Sep 1977 | 1 | 3.6% | +10.7% | +1937.4% |
| Oct 1977 | Dec 1977 | 10 | 4.4% | +27.6% | +1949.4% |
| Jan 1978 | Apr 1978 | 15 | 10.0% | +17.7% | +1905.0% |
| Jun 1978 | Jul 1978 | 5 | 5.6% | +30.4% | +1892.3% |
| Oct 1981 | Nov 1981 | 7 | 7.6% | +23.0% | +1339.2% |
| Dec 1981 | Dec 1981 | 1 | 1.1% | +21.0% | +1312.5% |
| Jan 1982 | May 1982 | 16 | 11.2% | +47.7% | +1348.7% |
| May 1982 | Aug 1982 | 13 | 11.7% | +56.4% | +1346.8% |
| Apr 1985 | May 1985 | 1 | 1.3% | +36.9% | +902.6% |
| Jul 1986 | Aug 1986 | 2 | 2.3% | +93.5% | +766.3% |
| Nov 1986 | Jan 1987 | 6 | 5.9% | +37.3% | +734.3% |
| Oct 1987 | Oct 1987 | 1 | 2.8% | +54.6% | +674.2% |
| Nov 1990 | Nov 1990 | 2 | 5.0% | +28.1% | +394.4% |
| Dec 1991 | Dec 1991 | 1 | 0.7% | +28.2% | +322.9% |
| Apr 1993 | Apr 1993 | 3 | 5.5% | +20.9% | +290.5% |
| Jun 2002 | Jun 2002 | 1 | 0.6% | -11.8% | -17.7% |
| Jul 2002 | Oct 2003 | 68 | 38.7% | -13.8% | -16.5% |
| May 2004 | May 2004 | 3 | 2.4% | +2.6% | -17.6% |
| Aug 2004 | Aug 2004 | 1 | 1.0% | +2.3% | -19.3% |
| Jan 2005 | Feb 2005 | 4 | 3.8% | -1.1% | -20.4% |
| Apr 2005 | Nov 2005 | 33 | 19.0% | +17.5% | -19.2% |
| Sep 2006 | Oct 2006 | 7 | 5.7% | +29.3% | -18.4% |
| Nov 2006 | Nov 2006 | 1 | 0.1% | +31.6% | -19.2% |
| Jan 2008 | Jan 2008 | 1 | 4.8% | -66.6% | -23.4% |
| Sep 2008 | Jan 2014 | 280 | 81.3% | -55.2% | -22.4% |
| Jul 2015 | Nov 2016 | 70 | 36.2% | -6.4% | +86.8% |
| Nov 2018 | Mar 2021 | 120 | 83.1% | -36.4% | +44.7% |
| May 2023 | Jun 2023 | 2 | 3.6% | +25.2% | +36.8% |
| Jun 2023 | May 2024 | 47 | 34.7% | +24.7% | +40.4% |
| Jun 2024 | Jun 2024 | 1 | 3.0% | -24.3% | +20.0% |
| Jul 2024 | Oct 2024 | 13 | 29.1% | -19.2% | +16.8% |
| Oct 2024 | Nov 2024 | 1 | 0.7% | -8.4% | +11.5% |
| Dec 2024 | Nov 2025 | 50 | 43.8% | +19.5% | +15.6% |
| Average | 21 | — | +12.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AA below its 200-week moving average?
No. Alcoa Corporation (AA) is currently 13.7% above its 200-week moving average of $39.07. It would need to fall to $39.07 to cross below the line.
What is AA's 200-week moving average price?
Alcoa Corporation's 200-week moving average is $39.07 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when AA drops below its 200-week moving average?
AA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 51 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +12.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 21 weeks on average.
Is AA a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about AA as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 20 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 8.2%. Return on equity is 18.2%. Price-to-book is 1.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does AA compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in AA would have grown to $319, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 3.5% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. AA has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does AA pay a dividend?
Yes. Alcoa Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 85.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18