AA
Alcoa Corporation Materials - Aluminum Investor Relations →
Alcoa Corporation (AA) closed at $59.16 as of 2026-02-02, trading 56.8% above its 200-week moving average of $37.74. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 50.1% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 76, AA is in overbought territory.
Over the past 3296 weeks of data, AA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 51 times. On average, these episodes lasted 21 weeks. Historically, investors who bought AA at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +12.7%.
With a market cap of $15.3 billion, AA is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 7.5%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 19.9%, a solid level. The stock trades at 2.5x book value.
Share count has increased 40.3% over three years, indicating dilution. AA passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in AA would have grown to $422, compared to $2849 for the S&P 500. AA has returned 4.4% annualized vs 10.6% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -57% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: AA vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After AA Crosses Below the Line?
Across 20 historical episodes, buying AA when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -0.2% after 12 months (median +5.0%), compared to +9.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 53% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -3.5% vs +17.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment AA crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
AA has crossed below its 200-week MA 51 times with an average 1-year return of +12.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1962 | Jan 1963 | 4 | 8.6% | +29.1% | +4730.7% |
| Feb 1963 | Apr 1963 | 11 | 8.8% | +35.7% | +4492.9% |
| Oct 1964 | Nov 1964 | 4 | 3.2% | +19.7% | +4035.2% |
| Dec 1964 | Jan 1965 | 5 | 3.1% | +14.4% | +4031.9% |
| Oct 1966 | Oct 1966 | 1 | 1.7% | +29.6% | +3483.7% |
| Oct 1967 | Nov 1967 | 3 | 2.9% | +0.5% | +3147.6% |
| Jan 1968 | Sep 1968 | 35 | 12.9% | +15.2% | +3207.5% |
| Oct 1968 | Nov 1968 | 6 | 4.8% | -3.2% | +3053.1% |
| Jan 1969 | Jan 1969 | 1 | 1.0% | -3.9% | +3000.8% |
| Feb 1969 | Mar 1969 | 5 | 2.9% | -2.3% | +2972.8% |
| Jun 1969 | Oct 1969 | 18 | 12.7% | -20.2% | +3041.2% |
| Nov 1969 | Feb 1970 | 16 | 11.4% | -24.7% | +2961.7% |
| Mar 1970 | May 1971 | 61 | 32.4% | -8.8% | +3001.4% |
| Jun 1971 | Nov 1972 | 76 | 39.4% | -15.8% | +3262.9% |
| Dec 1972 | Jan 1973 | 4 | 4.4% | +39.4% | +3546.6% |
| Jan 1973 | Apr 1973 | 10 | 9.8% | +37.8% | +3657.9% |
| Sep 1974 | Mar 1975 | 22 | 28.0% | +12.7% | +3348.3% |
| Oct 1975 | Dec 1975 | 9 | 8.1% | +55.7% | +3359.1% |
| Sep 1977 | Sep 1977 | 1 | 3.6% | +10.7% | +2598.9% |
| Oct 1977 | Dec 1977 | 10 | 5.3% | +27.6% | +2614.8% |
| Jan 1978 | Apr 1978 | 15 | 9.9% | +17.7% | +2555.9% |
| Jun 1978 | Jul 1978 | 5 | 5.6% | +30.4% | +2539.2% |
| Oct 1981 | Nov 1981 | 7 | 7.6% | +23.0% | +1806.5% |
| Dec 1981 | Dec 1981 | 1 | 1.0% | +21.0% | +1771.1% |
| Jan 1982 | May 1982 | 16 | 12.8% | +47.7% | +1819.1% |
| May 1982 | Aug 1982 | 13 | 11.6% | +56.4% | +1816.5% |
| Apr 1985 | May 1985 | 1 | 2.1% | +37.2% | +1240.6% |
| Jul 1986 | Aug 1986 | 2 | 3.1% | +95.1% | +1057.3% |
| Nov 1986 | Dec 1986 | 5 | 5.8% | +37.3% | +1005.2% |
| Oct 1987 | Oct 1987 | 1 | 2.7% | +54.6% | +925.5% |
| Nov 1990 | Nov 1990 | 2 | 5.0% | +28.1% | +555.0% |
| Dec 1991 | Dec 1991 | 1 | 0.6% | +28.2% | +460.2% |
| Apr 1993 | May 1993 | 5 | 5.4% | +20.9% | +417.3% |
| Jun 2002 | Jun 2002 | 1 | 0.6% | -11.8% | +9.1% |
| Jul 2002 | Oct 2003 | 68 | 38.7% | -13.8% | +10.6% |
| May 2004 | May 2004 | 3 | 2.8% | +2.6% | +9.7% |
| Aug 2004 | Aug 2004 | 2 | 0.9% | -5.5% | +6.2% |
| Jan 2005 | Feb 2005 | 4 | 3.8% | -1.1% | +5.4% |
| Apr 2005 | Nov 2005 | 33 | 19.0% | +17.5% | +7.0% |
| Sep 2006 | Oct 2006 | 7 | 5.7% | +29.3% | +8.1% |
| Nov 2006 | Nov 2006 | 1 | 0.0% | +31.6% | +7.0% |
| Jan 2008 | Jan 2008 | 1 | 4.7% | -66.6% | +1.5% |
| Sep 2008 | Jan 2014 | 280 | 81.3% | -55.2% | +2.7% |
| Jul 2015 | Nov 2016 | 70 | 36.2% | -6.4% | +147.5% |
| Nov 2018 | Mar 2021 | 120 | 83.1% | -36.4% | +91.7% |
| May 2023 | Jun 2023 | 2 | 3.6% | +24.9% | +81.3% |
| Jun 2023 | May 2024 | 47 | 34.7% | +24.7% | +85.9% |
| Jun 2024 | Jun 2024 | 1 | 3.0% | -24.3% | +59.0% |
| Jul 2024 | Oct 2024 | 13 | 29.1% | -19.2% | +54.7% |
| Oct 2024 | Nov 2024 | 1 | 1.0% | -8.2% | +48.0% |
| Dec 2024 | Nov 2025 | 50 | 43.8% | +19.5% | +53.2% |
| Average | 21 | — | +12.7% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02