XOM

Exxon Mobil Corporation Energy - Oil & Gas Investor Relations →

NO
53.2% ABOVE
↑ Moving away Was 50.3% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Buy Threshold $104.25
14-Week RSI 92
Rel. Volume (14w) This week's trading vs. the 14-week average 1.7x
Buyers vs. Sellers (14w) Are up-weeks or down-weeks getting more volume? 0.92

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) closed at $159.67 as of 2026-03-20, trading 53.2% above its 200-week moving average of $104.25. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 50.3% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 92, XOM is in overbought territory.

Trading volume is running at 1.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.92 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.

Over the past 3302 weeks of data, XOM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 36 times. On average, these episodes lasted 15 weeks. Historically, investors who bought XOM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +11.5%.

With a market cap of $665.3 billion, XOM is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.8%. Return on equity stands at 11.1%. The stock trades at 2.6x book value.

XOM is a Dividend Aristocrat, having increased its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years. The current yield is 258.00%. Share count has increased 2.4% over three years, indicating dilution.

Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in XOM would have grown to $3052, compared to $2683 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 10.8% vs 10.4% for the index — confirming XOM as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.

Free cash flow has been declining at a -26.1% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.

Business Health

Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.

Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)

Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy

Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)

ROIC Return on invested capital (%)

FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal

Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)

Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)

Growth of $100: XOM vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After XOM Crosses Below the Line?

Across 26 historical episodes, buying XOM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +7.3% after 12 months (median +3.0%), compared to +13.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 58% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +17.2% vs +30.5% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment XOM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

Advertisement

Historical Touches

XOM has crossed below its 200-week MA 36 times with an average 1-year return of +11.5% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Jun 1966Jul 196633.6%-5.8%+109050.6%
Jul 1966Mar 19688814.5%-3.5%+108854.3%
May 1968Jun 196820.7%+29.7%+104560.6%
Jun 1968Jun 196810.3%+22.8%+104365.6%
Nov 1969Aug 19704119.3%+10.6%+100945.2%
May 1974Jun 197431.0%+24.0%+71770.6%
Jun 1974Jul 197454.8%+40.4%+73675.2%
Aug 1974Jan 19752423.9%+32.1%+72100.7%
Mar 1975Apr 197510.9%+42.5%+69679.1%
Aug 1982Aug 198211.9%+60.6%+27746.1%
Sep 2001Sep 200113.6%-6.0%+880.7%
Nov 2001Dec 200132.1%-4.6%+834.1%
Jul 2002Aug 20035915.7%+0.1%+845.2%
Sep 2003Sep 200321.7%+34.2%+802.5%
Oct 2003Dec 200364.9%+38.0%+812.6%
Oct 2008Oct 2008310.6%+13.6%+384.2%
Feb 2009Jun 20091510.3%-5.2%+319.3%
Jun 2009Oct 2009179.9%-8.9%+317.9%
Oct 2009Nov 200931.9%-4.8%+311.8%
Dec 2009Dec 20105222.7%+1.8%+302.9%
Aug 2011Aug 201112.2%+29.8%+302.2%
Sep 2011Sep 201132.6%+29.8%+295.3%
Mar 2015Apr 201541.5%+1.5%+204.9%
Jun 2015Mar 20164115.0%+8.6%+200.9%
Mar 2016Apr 201621.3%+2.4%+197.5%
Sep 2016Sep 201610.5%-0.6%+190.9%
Oct 2016Nov 201610.6%+3.3%+190.4%
Jan 2017Oct 2017366.4%+5.0%+188.0%
Nov 2017Nov 201710.7%+2.5%+188.8%
Feb 2018May 2018138.5%+1.7%+205.8%
Nov 2018Nov 201811.5%-3.7%+194.8%
Dec 2018Feb 2019911.0%-4.0%+194.4%
May 2019Jun 201945.9%-36.2%+193.7%
Jul 2019Mar 20218554.5%-38.5%+190.2%
Mar 2021May 202176.0%+47.0%+242.3%
Jul 2021Sep 2021107.4%+55.0%+232.5%
Average15+11.5%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is XOM below its 200-week moving average?

No. Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) is currently 53.2% above its 200-week moving average of $104.25. It would need to fall to $104.25 to cross below the line.

What is XOM's 200-week moving average price?

Exxon Mobil Corporation's 200-week moving average is $104.25 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.

What happens when XOM drops below its 200-week moving average?

XOM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 36 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +11.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 15 weeks on average.

Is XOM a good value right now?

Here's what our data says about XOM as of 2026-03-20: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 92 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 1.8%. Return on equity is 11.1%. Price-to-book is 2.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.

How does XOM compare to the S&P 500?

Over the past 33.2 years, $100 invested in XOM would have grown to $3052, compared to $2683 for the S&P 500. That's 10.8% annualized vs 10.4% for the index. XOM has outperformed the broader market over this period.

Does XOM pay a dividend?

Yes. Exxon Mobil Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 258.00%. It is also a Dividend Aristocrat, meaning it has raised its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years.

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of week of 2026-03-20