WPM
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Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM) closed at $130.41 as of 2026-05-15, trading 96.4% above its 200-week moving average of $66.40. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 110.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 48, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.78 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1040 weeks of data, WPM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times. On average, these episodes lasted 16 weeks. Historically, investors who bought WPM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +23.0%.
With a market cap of $59.2 billion, WPM is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.1%. Return on equity stands at 21.5%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 6.8x book value.
WPM passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 20 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in WPM would have grown to $1675, compared to $840 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 15.1% vs 11.2% for the index — confirming WPM as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: WPM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After WPM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying WPM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +28.2% after 12 months (median +13.0%), compared to +12.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 88% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +95.4% vs +25.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment WPM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices WPM would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where WPM's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (last report: 2025-12-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $100.95 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $112.47 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $126.95 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $145.72 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $171.00 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Historical Touches
WPM has crossed below its 200-week MA 17 times with an average 1-year return of +23.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2008 | Aug 2008 | 2 | 5.6% | -7.0% | +1403.1% |
| Sep 2008 | May 2009 | 38 | 73.0% | +18.7% | +1517.1% |
| Jun 2009 | Aug 2009 | 11 | 27.3% | +93.0% | +1470.4% |
| Apr 2013 | Jun 2016 | 168 | 54.3% | -14.4% | +484.1% |
| Nov 2016 | Jan 2017 | 8 | 14.8% | +14.1% | +722.8% |
| Feb 2017 | Mar 2017 | 3 | 3.5% | +1.0% | +656.0% |
| May 2017 | May 2017 | 1 | 2.2% | +11.3% | +651.9% |
| Jun 2017 | Jun 2017 | 1 | 3.5% | +18.0% | +663.6% |
| Jul 2017 | Jul 2017 | 2 | 3.8% | +21.7% | +669.6% |
| Jul 2017 | Aug 2017 | 4 | 3.7% | +10.3% | +646.4% |
| Sep 2017 | Oct 2017 | 2 | 2.1% | -10.4% | +655.2% |
| Feb 2018 | Feb 2018 | 1 | 1.8% | +14.5% | +660.3% |
| Feb 2018 | Mar 2018 | 1 | 0.1% | +12.8% | +648.5% |
| Aug 2018 | Dec 2018 | 17 | 16.5% | +46.5% | +678.0% |
| Jul 2022 | Nov 2022 | 17 | 15.1% | +34.3% | +300.9% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 1 | 1.3% | +53.6% | +234.9% |
| Feb 2024 | Feb 2024 | 1 | 4.9% | +72.6% | +232.6% |
| Average | 16 | — | +23.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WPM below its 200-week moving average?
No. Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM) is currently 96.4% above its 200-week moving average of $66.40. It would need to fall to $66.40 to cross below the line.
What is WPM's 200-week moving average price?
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp.'s 200-week moving average is $66.40 as of 2026-05-15. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when WPM drops below its 200-week moving average?
WPM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +23.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 16 weeks on average.
Is WPM a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about WPM as of 2026-05-15: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 48. Free cash flow yield is 1.1%. Return on equity is 21.5%. Price-to-book is 6.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does WPM compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 20 years, $100 invested in WPM would have grown to $1675, compared to $840 for the S&P 500. That's 15.1% annualized vs 11.2% for the index. WPM has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does WPM pay a dividend?
Yes. Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. currently pays a dividend yield of 60.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-15