WDC
Western Digital Corporation Technology - Data Storage Investor Relations →
Western Digital Corporation (WDC) closed at $477.22 as of 2026-07-17, trading 377.4% above its 200-week moving average of $99.96. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 496.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 58, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.75 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2441 weeks of data, WDC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 31 times. On average, these episodes lasted 30 weeks. Historically, investors who bought WDC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +67.5%.
Return on equity stands at 85.9%, indicating strong profitability.
Share count has increased 10.2% over three years, indicating dilution. WDC passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in WDC would have grown to $17557, compared to $3082 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 16.6% vs 10.7% for the index — confirming WDC as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 19.1% compound annual rate, with 1 consecutive year of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: WDC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After WDC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 18 historical episodes, buying WDC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +73.8% after 12 months (median +25.0%), compared to +11.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +37.8% vs +29.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment WDC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices WDC would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where WDC's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $339.87 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $392.53 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $464.51 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $568.81 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $733.51 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from WDC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
WDC has crossed below its 200-week MA 31 times with an average 1-year return of +67.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1979 | Oct 1979 | 2 | 8.7% | +478.9% | +66430.8% |
| Apr 1982 | Jan 1983 | 37 | 41.0% | +93.5% | +27380.1% |
| Dec 1983 | Dec 1983 | 1 | 1.3% | N/A | +19052.8% |
| Mar 1984 | Mar 1984 | 1 | 0.4% | +33.3% | +18220.1% |
| Apr 1984 | May 1984 | 5 | 13.3% | +40.9% | +19052.8% |
| May 1984 | Aug 1984 | 11 | 24.7% | +58.8% | +18489.5% |
| Oct 1984 | Oct 1984 | 1 | 1.2% | -17.6% | +18489.5% |
| Oct 1984 | Dec 1984 | 8 | 13.8% | -9.4% | +19651.3% |
| Sep 1985 | Nov 1985 | 12 | 21.6% | +57.7% | +17704.0% |
| Nov 1987 | Dec 1987 | 5 | 17.0% | -9.2% | +11497.1% |
| Jan 1988 | Mar 1988 | 9 | 20.0% | +4.7% | +11713.9% |
| Mar 1988 | Apr 1988 | 4 | 4.4% | -21.8% | +10522.6% |
| May 1988 | Nov 1992 | 233 | 78.7% | -22.2% | +10704.1% |
| Mar 1993 | Oct 1993 | 30 | 40.4% | +255.6% | +27990.8% |
| Dec 1997 | Jan 1998 | 6 | 12.4% | -0.8% | +4916.2% |
| Mar 1998 | Mar 1998 | 3 | 3.5% | -43.4% | +4670.1% |
| May 1998 | Apr 2002 | 202 | 84.6% | -49.1% | +4430.8% |
| Apr 2002 | Oct 2002 | 25 | 46.7% | +52.9% | +12958.7% |
| Jul 2004 | Aug 2004 | 3 | 7.9% | +113.8% | +11170.4% |
| Sep 2008 | Mar 2009 | 26 | 49.2% | +87.9% | +4102.4% |
| Jul 2010 | Sep 2010 | 8 | 8.0% | +30.6% | +2893.8% |
| Aug 2011 | Nov 2011 | 15 | 17.0% | +72.2% | +2891.5% |
| May 2012 | Jul 2012 | 5 | 3.7% | +114.2% | +2523.9% |
| Oct 2015 | Jan 2017 | 62 | 48.6% | -7.9% | +1009.1% |
| Jul 2018 | Sep 2019 | 58 | 47.5% | -16.9% | +860.5% |
| Sep 2019 | Dec 2019 | 13 | 19.8% | -36.8% | +976.8% |
| Feb 2020 | Feb 2021 | 49 | 49.7% | +25.0% | +1056.5% |
| Oct 2021 | Nov 2021 | 3 | 6.6% | -39.1% | +1044.7% |
| Jan 2022 | Apr 2022 | 13 | 15.7% | -9.9% | +1171.0% |
| Jun 2022 | Dec 2023 | 78 | 40.9% | -12.7% | +1268.4% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 3 | 24.4% | +870.0% | +1469.8% |
| Average | 30 | — | +67.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WDC below its 200-week moving average?
No. Western Digital Corporation (WDC) is currently 377.4% above its 200-week moving average of $99.96. It would need to fall to $99.96 to cross below the line.
What is WDC's 200-week moving average price?
Western Digital Corporation's 200-week moving average is $99.96 as of 2026-07-17. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when WDC drops below its 200-week moving average?
WDC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 31 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +67.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 30 weeks on average.
Is WDC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about WDC as of 2026-07-17: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 58. Return on equity is 85.9%. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does WDC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in WDC would have grown to $17557, compared to $3082 for the S&P 500. That's 16.6% annualized vs 10.7% for the index. WDC has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does WDC pay a dividend?
Yes. Western Digital Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 13.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-17