VST
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Vistra Corp. (VST) closed at $148.38 as of 2026-09-11, trading 43.0% above its 200-week moving average of $103.76. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 44.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 50, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.78 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 470 weeks of data, VST has crossed below its 200-week moving average 4 times. On average, these episodes lasted 21 weeks. Historically, investors who bought VST at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +7.6%.
With a market cap of $49.8 billion, VST is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 0.1%. Return on equity stands at 43.0%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 16.6x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 13.3% over the past three years.
Over the past 9.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in VST would have grown to $931, compared to $348 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 27.8% vs 14.7% for the index — confirming VST as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: VST vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After VST Crosses Below the Line?
Across 4 historical episodes, buying VST when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +10.8% after 12 months (median +13.0%), compared to +27.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 75% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +27.2% vs +24.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment VST crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices VST would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where VST's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-05.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $137.10 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $143.86 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $151.33 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $159.61 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $168.85 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | $1.66 | $0.76 | -54.2% |
| 2026-05-08 | $1.87 | $2.87 | +53.4% |
| 2026-02-27 | $2.30 | $0.54 | -76.5% |
| 2025-11-07 | $1.96 | $1.75 | -10.5% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from VST's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
VST has crossed below its 200-week MA 4 times with an average 1-year return of +7.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2020 | May 2020 | 13 | 30.7% | -7.6% | +786.7% |
| Jun 2020 | Jan 2021 | 30 | 14.3% | -5.0% | +736.7% |
| Jan 2021 | Feb 2021 | 1 | 1.9% | +12.0% | +728.5% |
| Feb 2021 | Nov 2021 | 40 | 21.5% | +31.1% | +859.1% |
| Average | 21 | — | +7.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VST below its 200-week moving average?
No. Vistra Corp. (VST) is currently 43.0% above its 200-week moving average of $103.76. It would need to fall to $103.76 to cross below the line.
What is VST's 200-week moving average price?
Vistra Corp.'s 200-week moving average is $103.76 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when VST drops below its 200-week moving average?
VST has crossed below its 200-week moving average 4 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +7.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 21 weeks on average.
Is VST a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about VST as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 50. Free cash flow yield is 0.1%. Return on equity is 43.0%. Price-to-book is 16.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does VST compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 9.1 years, $100 invested in VST would have grown to $931, compared to $348 for the S&P 500. That's 27.8% annualized vs 14.7% for the index. VST has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does VST pay a dividend?
Yes. Vistra Corp. currently pays a dividend yield of 63.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11