VST
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Vistra Corp. (VST) closed at $139.68 as of 2026-05-15, trading 50.4% above its 200-week moving average of $92.90. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 60.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 45, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.5x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.89 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 453 weeks of data, VST has crossed below its 200-week moving average 4 times. On average, these episodes lasted 21 weeks. Historically, investors who bought VST at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +7.6%.
With a market cap of $47.1 billion, VST is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.0%. Return on equity stands at 42.9%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 18.0x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 13.3% over the past three years.
Over the past 8.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in VST would have grown to $875, compared to $338 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 28.1% vs 14.9% for the index — confirming VST as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: VST vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After VST Crosses Below the Line?
Across 4 historical episodes, buying VST when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +10.8% after 12 months (median +13.0%), compared to +27.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 75% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +27.2% vs +24.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment VST crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices VST would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where VST's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $137.01 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $143.12 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $149.81 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $157.15 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $165.24 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Historical Touches
VST has crossed below its 200-week MA 4 times with an average 1-year return of +7.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2020 | May 2020 | 13 | 31.3% | -7.6% | +733.5% |
| Jun 2020 | Jan 2021 | 30 | 14.3% | -5.0% | +686.6% |
| Jan 2021 | Feb 2021 | 1 | 1.9% | +12.0% | +678.8% |
| Feb 2021 | Nov 2021 | 40 | 21.4% | +31.1% | +801.6% |
| Average | 21 | — | +7.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VST below its 200-week moving average?
No. Vistra Corp. (VST) is currently 50.4% above its 200-week moving average of $92.90. It would need to fall to $92.90 to cross below the line.
What is VST's 200-week moving average price?
Vistra Corp.'s 200-week moving average is $92.90 as of 2026-05-15. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when VST drops below its 200-week moving average?
VST has crossed below its 200-week moving average 4 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +7.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 21 weeks on average.
Is VST a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about VST as of 2026-05-15: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 45. Free cash flow yield is 1.0%. Return on equity is 42.9%. Price-to-book is 18.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does VST compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 8.8 years, $100 invested in VST would have grown to $875, compared to $338 for the S&P 500. That's 28.1% annualized vs 14.9% for the index. VST has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does VST pay a dividend?
Yes. Vistra Corp. currently pays a dividend yield of 66.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-15