VST

Vistra Corp. Utilities - Utilities - Independent Power Producers Investor Relations →

NO
66.6% ABOVE
↓ Approaching Was 82.4% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Buy Threshold $87.64
14-Week RSI 36
Rel. Volume (14w) This week's trading vs. the 14-week average 1.2x
Buyers vs. Sellers (14w) Are up-weeks or down-weeks getting more volume? 1.15

Vistra Corp. (VST) closed at $146.02 as of 2026-03-20, trading 66.6% above its 200-week moving average of $87.64. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 82.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 36, indicating neutral momentum.

Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.15 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.

Over the past 445 weeks of data, VST has crossed below its 200-week moving average 4 times. On average, these episodes lasted 21 weeks. Historically, investors who bought VST at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +7.6%.

With a market cap of $49.5 billion, VST is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 17.7%, a solid level. The stock trades at 18.8x book value.

The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 13.3% over the past three years.

Over the past 8.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in VST would have grown to $915, compared to $296 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 29.4% vs 13.5% for the index — confirming VST as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.

Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.

Business Health

Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.

Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)

Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy

Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)

ROIC Return on invested capital (%)

FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal

Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)

Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)

Growth of $100: VST vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After VST Crosses Below the Line?

Across 4 historical episodes, buying VST when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +10.8% after 12 months (median +13.0%), compared to +27.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 75% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +27.2% vs +24.5% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment VST crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

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Historical Touches

VST has crossed below its 200-week MA 4 times with an average 1-year return of +7.6% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Feb 2020May 20201331.3%-7.6%+771.3%
Jun 2020Jan 20213014.3%-5.0%+722.3%
Jan 2021Feb 202111.9%+12.0%+714.2%
Feb 2021Nov 20214021.4%+31.1%+842.6%
Average21+7.6%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is VST below its 200-week moving average?

No. Vistra Corp. (VST) is currently 66.6% above its 200-week moving average of $87.64. It would need to fall to $87.64 to cross below the line.

What is VST's 200-week moving average price?

Vistra Corp.'s 200-week moving average is $87.64 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.

What happens when VST drops below its 200-week moving average?

VST has crossed below its 200-week moving average 4 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +7.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 21 weeks on average.

Is VST a good value right now?

Here's what our data says about VST as of 2026-03-20: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 36. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 17.7%. Price-to-book is 18.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.

How does VST compare to the S&P 500?

Over the past 8.6 years, $100 invested in VST would have grown to $915, compared to $296 for the S&P 500. That's 29.4% annualized vs 13.5% for the index. VST has outperformed the broader market over this period.

Does VST pay a dividend?

Yes. Vistra Corp. currently pays a dividend yield of 62.00%.

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of week of 2026-03-20