VRTX
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Healthcare - Biotechnology Investor Relations →
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX) closed at $436.95 as of 2026-05-15, trading 8.8% above its 200-week moving average of $401.70. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 7.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 39, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.32 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1768 weeks of data, VRTX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 27 times. On average, these episodes lasted 16 weeks. Historically, investors who bought VRTX at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +71.7%.
With a market cap of $110.9 billion, VRTX is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.5%. Return on equity stands at 24.2%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 5.7x book value.
VRTX passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in VRTX would have grown to $8739, compared to $3058 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.3% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming VRTX as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 2 open-market purchases totaling $5,844,184.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -6.6% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: VRTX vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After VRTX Crosses Below the Line?
Across 27 historical episodes, buying VRTX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +84.9% after 12 months (median +43.0%), compared to +12.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 96% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +122.0% vs +27.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment VRTX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices VRTX would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where VRTX's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $416.01 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $429.19 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $443.23 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $458.22 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $474.26 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Historical Touches
VRTX has crossed below its 200-week MA 27 times with an average 1-year return of +71.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1992 | Nov 1992 | 19 | 41.4% | +35.7% | +12384.3% |
| Nov 1992 | Dec 1992 | 2 | 2.4% | +52.3% | +7844.5% |
| Dec 1992 | May 1993 | 21 | 32.2% | +55.8% | +8029.3% |
| Jun 1993 | Sep 1993 | 13 | 13.8% | +29.3% | +8425.9% |
| Jun 1994 | Aug 1994 | 7 | 7.9% | +41.5% | +7337.4% |
| Dec 1994 | Dec 1994 | 1 | 4.7% | +67.4% | +7499.1% |
| Jun 1998 | Jun 1998 | 1 | 1.8% | -18.6% | +3151.7% |
| Jun 1998 | Dec 1998 | 26 | 42.0% | +13.0% | +3849.8% |
| Feb 1999 | Aug 1999 | 30 | 32.6% | +77.2% | +3159.3% |
| Sep 1999 | Sep 1999 | 1 | 0.1% | +484.8% | +2777.0% |
| Oct 1999 | Dec 1999 | 8 | 16.6% | +535.8% | +2952.9% |
| Sep 2001 | Jun 2005 | 195 | 72.4% | -25.5% | +1761.7% |
| Dec 2007 | Mar 2008 | 14 | 37.3% | +25.7% | +1761.7% |
| Sep 2008 | Sep 2008 | 1 | 2.5% | +38.4% | +1565.2% |
| Oct 2008 | Dec 2008 | 10 | 23.9% | +32.7% | +1617.6% |
| Mar 2009 | Apr 2009 | 8 | 9.3% | +49.5% | +1473.5% |
| May 2009 | Jun 2009 | 3 | 4.7% | +31.3% | +1431.0% |
| Nov 2011 | Jan 2012 | 9 | 25.0% | +43.4% | +1292.0% |
| Jan 2012 | Feb 2012 | 3 | 0.6% | +30.2% | +1114.4% |
| Apr 2012 | Apr 2012 | 2 | 1.8% | +54.1% | +1108.0% |
| Nov 2012 | Dec 2012 | 2 | 4.5% | +74.5% | +998.1% |
| Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | 1 | 3.3% | +5.9% | +425.0% |
| Mar 2016 | May 2016 | 11 | 9.3% | +8.9% | +406.5% |
| Jun 2016 | Jul 2016 | 4 | 8.1% | +42.0% | +403.8% |
| Sep 2016 | Mar 2017 | 27 | 22.1% | +66.9% | +382.1% |
| Jun 2021 | Jul 2021 | 5 | 5.3% | +32.0% | +126.4% |
| Aug 2021 | Nov 2021 | 16 | 11.3% | +51.5% | +124.8% |
| Average | 16 | — | +71.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VRTX below its 200-week moving average?
No. Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX) is currently 8.8% above its 200-week moving average of $401.70. It would need to fall to $401.70 to cross below the line.
What is VRTX's 200-week moving average price?
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated's 200-week moving average is $401.70 as of 2026-05-15. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when VRTX drops below its 200-week moving average?
VRTX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 27 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +71.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 16 weeks on average.
Is VRTX a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about VRTX as of 2026-05-15: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 39. Free cash flow yield is 2.5%. Return on equity is 24.2%. Price-to-book is 5.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does VRTX compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.4 years, $100 invested in VRTX would have grown to $8739, compared to $3058 for the S&P 500. That's 14.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. VRTX has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-15