VLO
Valero Energy Corporation Energy - Refining Investor Relations →
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) closed at $239.86 as of 2026-03-20, trading 81.4% above its 200-week moving average of $132.24. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 75.2% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 86, VLO is in overbought territory.
A big jump in activity this week — 2.7x the usual volume, and the price went up. Significantly more people than usual decided to buy. This kind of surge, especially on a stock already below its 200-week average, can be an early sign that sentiment is shifting.
Over the past 2258 weeks of data, VLO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times. On average, these episodes lasted 28 weeks. Historically, investors who bought VLO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +21.5%.
With a market cap of $73.2 billion, VLO is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.1%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 8.3%. The stock trades at 3.0x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 19.7% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in VLO would have grown to $14872, compared to $2683 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 16.2% vs 10.4% for the index — confirming VLO as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -22.7% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: VLO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After VLO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 20 historical episodes, buying VLO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +38.5% after 12 months (median +41.0%), compared to +12.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 75% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +76.5% vs +29.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment VLO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
VLO has crossed below its 200-week MA 24 times with an average 1-year return of +21.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1983 | Mar 1983 | 1 | 5.0% | -29.4% | +19492.3% |
| Oct 1983 | Jan 1984 | 11 | 10.9% | -62.4% | +16479.2% |
| Jan 1984 | Jun 1987 | 176 | 67.6% | -60.3% | +16383.2% |
| Sep 1987 | Jan 1989 | 70 | 52.6% | -27.4% | +33477.6% |
| Dec 1993 | Jan 1994 | 7 | 10.1% | -9.7% | +15446.8% |
| Feb 1994 | Jul 1995 | 73 | 27.8% | -15.5% | +14731.4% |
| Jul 1996 | Aug 1996 | 2 | 3.4% | +107.9% | +14814.3% |
| Aug 1996 | Sep 1996 | 1 | 0.4% | +135.5% | +14374.3% |
| Aug 1998 | Oct 1998 | 8 | 11.3% | +20.3% | +10807.1% |
| Nov 1998 | Mar 1999 | 18 | 20.6% | +11.6% | +9480.8% |
| May 1999 | Aug 1999 | 14 | 13.3% | +32.8% | +9058.4% |
| Aug 1999 | Jan 2000 | 23 | 21.4% | +33.3% | +8965.5% |
| Sep 2002 | Oct 2002 | 4 | 22.6% | +30.0% | +6551.0% |
| Mar 2008 | Apr 2008 | 3 | 4.2% | -60.2% | +846.4% |
| Apr 2008 | Oct 2011 | 182 | 69.3% | -57.3% | +838.2% |
| Nov 2011 | Jan 2012 | 9 | 15.5% | +38.1% | +1895.1% |
| May 2012 | Jun 2012 | 1 | 1.0% | +119.5% | +1964.1% |
| Jul 2016 | Jul 2016 | 1 | 0.0% | +48.9% | +639.0% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 1 | 1.5% | -0.8% | +346.7% |
| Feb 2020 | Feb 2021 | 51 | 48.6% | +24.2% | +359.9% |
| Apr 2021 | Apr 2021 | 3 | 2.7% | +52.8% | +301.1% |
| Jul 2021 | Sep 2021 | 12 | 15.7% | +55.1% | +289.5% |
| Nov 2021 | Dec 2021 | 5 | 3.4% | +107.6% | +301.9% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 4 | 7.8% | N/A | +135.8% |
| Average | 28 | — | +21.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VLO below its 200-week moving average?
No. Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) is currently 81.4% above its 200-week moving average of $132.24. It would need to fall to $132.24 to cross below the line.
What is VLO's 200-week moving average price?
Valero Energy Corporation's 200-week moving average is $132.24 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when VLO drops below its 200-week moving average?
VLO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +21.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 28 weeks on average.
Is VLO a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about VLO as of 2026-03-20: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 86 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 5.1%. Return on equity is 8.3%. Price-to-book is 3.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does VLO compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.2 years, $100 invested in VLO would have grown to $14872, compared to $2683 for the S&P 500. That's 16.2% annualized vs 10.4% for the index. VLO has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does VLO pay a dividend?
Yes. Valero Energy Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 200.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20