VLO
Valero Energy Corporation Energy - Refining Investor Relations →
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) closed at $309.65 as of 2026-07-17, trading 114.4% above its 200-week moving average of $144.43. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 95.8% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 71, VLO is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.92 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2275 weeks of data, VLO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times. On average, these episodes lasted 28 weeks. Historically, investors who bought VLO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +26.3%.
With a market cap of $91.9 billion, VLO is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.2%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 15.8%, a solid level. The stock trades at 3.9x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 19.7% over the past three years. VLO passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in VLO would have grown to $19202, compared to $3082 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 16.9% vs 10.7% for the index — confirming VLO as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -22.7% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: VLO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After VLO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 20 historical episodes, buying VLO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +42.0% after 12 months (median +43.0%), compared to +12.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 75% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +76.6% vs +29.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment VLO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices VLO would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where VLO's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-30.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $205.84 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $238.81 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $284.36 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $351.38 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $459.72 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from VLO's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
VLO has crossed below its 200-week MA 24 times with an average 1-year return of +26.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1983 | Mar 1983 | 1 | 5.0% | -29.4% | +25313.0% |
| Oct 1983 | Jan 1984 | 11 | 10.9% | -62.4% | +21404.8% |
| Jan 1984 | Jun 1987 | 176 | 67.6% | -60.3% | +21280.3% |
| Sep 1987 | Jan 1989 | 70 | 52.6% | -27.4% | +43453.3% |
| Dec 1993 | Jan 1994 | 7 | 10.1% | -9.7% | +20065.7% |
| Feb 1994 | Jul 1995 | 73 | 27.9% | -15.5% | +19137.8% |
| Jul 1996 | Aug 1996 | 2 | 3.4% | +107.9% | +19245.3% |
| Aug 1996 | Sep 1996 | 1 | 0.5% | +135.5% | +18674.5% |
| Aug 1998 | Oct 1998 | 8 | 11.5% | +20.3% | +14047.5% |
| Nov 1998 | Mar 1999 | 18 | 20.8% | +11.6% | +12327.3% |
| May 1999 | Aug 1999 | 14 | 13.5% | +32.3% | +11735.6% |
| Aug 1999 | Jan 2000 | 23 | 21.6% | +33.3% | +11658.8% |
| Sep 2002 | Oct 2002 | 4 | 22.7% | +30.0% | +8527.0% |
| Mar 2008 | Apr 2008 | 3 | 4.2% | -60.2% | +1127.6% |
| Apr 2008 | Oct 2011 | 182 | 69.3% | -57.3% | +1116.9% |
| Nov 2011 | Jan 2012 | 9 | 15.6% | +37.2% | +2472.1% |
| May 2012 | Jun 2012 | 1 | 1.1% | +119.5% | +2577.4% |
| Jul 2016 | Jul 2016 | 1 | 0.1% | +48.9% | +858.6% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 1 | 1.6% | -0.8% | +479.4% |
| Feb 2020 | Feb 2021 | 51 | 48.6% | +24.2% | +496.6% |
| Apr 2021 | Apr 2021 | 3 | 2.7% | +52.8% | +420.3% |
| Jul 2021 | Sep 2021 | 12 | 15.8% | +55.1% | +405.2% |
| Nov 2021 | Dec 2021 | 5 | 3.5% | +106.4% | +414.8% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 4 | 7.9% | +140.0% | +205.9% |
| Average | 28 | — | +26.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VLO below its 200-week moving average?
No. Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) is currently 114.4% above its 200-week moving average of $144.43. It would need to fall to $144.43 to cross below the line.
What is VLO's 200-week moving average price?
Valero Energy Corporation's 200-week moving average is $144.43 as of 2026-07-17. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when VLO drops below its 200-week moving average?
VLO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +26.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 28 weeks on average.
Is VLO a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about VLO as of 2026-07-17: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 71 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 5.2%. Return on equity is 15.8%. Price-to-book is 3.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does VLO compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in VLO would have grown to $19202, compared to $3082 for the S&P 500. That's 16.9% annualized vs 10.7% for the index. VLO has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does VLO pay a dividend?
Yes. Valero Energy Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 160.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-17