USB
U.S. Bancorp Financial Services - Banking Investor Relations →
U.S. Bancorp (USB) closed at $53.12 as of 2026-05-15, trading 30.7% above its 200-week moving average of $40.65. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 36.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 36, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.88 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2719 weeks of data, USB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 41 times. On average, these episodes lasted 12 weeks. Historically, investors who bought USB at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +14.3%.
With a market cap of $82.5 billion, USB is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 12.4%. The stock trades at 1.4x book value.
Over the past 33.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in USB would have grown to $3898, compared to $3058 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.6% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming USB as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -27.7% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: USB vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After USB Crosses Below the Line?
Across 26 historical episodes, buying USB when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +14.8% after 12 months (median +13.0%), compared to +9.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 77% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +23.8% vs +18.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment USB crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices USB would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where USB's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $49.79 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $51.81 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $54.00 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $56.38 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $58.99 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Historical Touches
USB has crossed below its 200-week MA 41 times with an average 1-year return of +14.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1974 | Jan 1975 | 40 | 24.6% | -1.9% | +40246.4% |
| Mar 1975 | Mar 1975 | 4 | 3.8% | +26.5% | +42116.8% |
| Oct 1979 | Dec 1979 | 7 | 4.0% | +5.0% | +28075.6% |
| Feb 1980 | Apr 1980 | 11 | 13.5% | +0.5% | +27171.5% |
| Sep 1980 | Jan 1981 | 14 | 5.1% | +3.1% | +26461.4% |
| Jan 1981 | Mar 1981 | 8 | 5.4% | +8.4% | +26741.0% |
| May 1981 | May 1981 | 3 | 0.6% | +4.1% | +26187.6% |
| Aug 1981 | Sep 1981 | 2 | 1.0% | +4.1% | +26187.6% |
| Apr 1982 | Apr 1982 | 1 | 0.9% | +54.1% | +25919.3% |
| May 1982 | Aug 1982 | 11 | 5.0% | +81.1% | +26741.0% |
| Sep 1988 | Oct 1988 | 2 | 2.0% | +29.4% | +8399.6% |
| Dec 1988 | Mar 1989 | 13 | 4.5% | +10.8% | +8178.9% |
| Apr 1989 | Apr 1989 | 2 | 3.3% | -2.6% | +8125.5% |
| Jan 1990 | Apr 1990 | 15 | 8.3% | -14.5% | +7706.6% |
| Jul 1990 | Feb 1991 | 31 | 20.7% | +13.4% | +7724.5% |
| Feb 2000 | Mar 2000 | 3 | 6.4% | +29.8% | +610.6% |
| Jul 2000 | Jul 2000 | 1 | 1.6% | +22.7% | +538.5% |
| Oct 2000 | Dec 2000 | 9 | 18.0% | +0.2% | +558.8% |
| Mar 2001 | Mar 2001 | 2 | 4.0% | +11.1% | +493.4% |
| Apr 2001 | May 2001 | 4 | 3.7% | +14.2% | +470.9% |
| Jun 2001 | Jun 2001 | 1 | 2.0% | +10.5% | +473.5% |
| Sep 2001 | Mar 2002 | 25 | 24.3% | +3.1% | +531.0% |
| Jul 2002 | Nov 2002 | 19 | 20.3% | +21.8% | +457.3% |
| Dec 2002 | Dec 2002 | 4 | 3.6% | +35.5% | +448.2% |
| Jan 2003 | Apr 2003 | 12 | 7.3% | +39.6% | +448.2% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2008 | 4 | 10.4% | -33.3% | +224.8% |
| Nov 2008 | Apr 2010 | 74 | 68.6% | -10.5% | +229.1% |
| May 2010 | Dec 2010 | 31 | 17.2% | +1.3% | +245.6% |
| May 2011 | Jun 2011 | 4 | 3.5% | +23.1% | +250.2% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 10 | 16.0% | +44.4% | +260.6% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 2 | 3.3% | +38.1% | +61.8% |
| Feb 2020 | Dec 2020 | 44 | 36.4% | +12.6% | +49.7% |
| Jan 2021 | Feb 2021 | 2 | 7.1% | +23.9% | +45.0% |
| Jun 2022 | Aug 2022 | 7 | 5.0% | -22.9% | +40.9% |
| Aug 2022 | Jan 2023 | 19 | 14.7% | -19.6% | +36.2% |
| Mar 2023 | Dec 2023 | 40 | 35.6% | +12.5% | +52.4% |
| Jan 2024 | Mar 2024 | 7 | 3.9% | +22.4% | +43.6% |
| Apr 2024 | Jul 2024 | 13 | 8.2% | -4.7% | +39.4% |
| Aug 2024 | Aug 2024 | 1 | 0.3% | +11.5% | +36.1% |
| Mar 2025 | Mar 2025 | 1 | 0.4% | +26.7% | +33.4% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 4 | 12.4% | +50.1% | +52.1% |
| Average | 12 | — | +14.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is USB below its 200-week moving average?
No. U.S. Bancorp (USB) is currently 30.7% above its 200-week moving average of $40.65. It would need to fall to $40.65 to cross below the line.
What is USB's 200-week moving average price?
U.S. Bancorp's 200-week moving average is $40.65 as of 2026-05-15. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when USB drops below its 200-week moving average?
USB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 41 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +14.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 12 weeks on average.
Is USB a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about USB as of 2026-05-15: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 36. Return on equity is 12.4%. Price-to-book is 1.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does USB compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.4 years, $100 invested in USB would have grown to $3898, compared to $3058 for the S&P 500. That's 11.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. USB has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does USB pay a dividend?
Yes. U.S. Bancorp currently pays a dividend yield of 388.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-15