URI
United Rentals Inc. Industrials - Equipment Rental Investor Relations →
United Rentals Inc. (URI) closed at $1045.21 as of 2026-07-17, trading 61.4% above its 200-week moving average of $647.72. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 70.1% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 75, URI is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 0.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.25 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1443 weeks of data, URI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times. On average, these episodes lasted 20 weeks. Historically, investors who bought URI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +25.2%.
With a market cap of $65.5 billion, URI is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.9%. Return on equity stands at 28.2%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 7.3x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 9.0% over the past three years.
Over the past 27.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in URI would have grown to $4725, compared to $1036 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.9% vs 8.8% for the index — confirming URI as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -3.8% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: URI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After URI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 23 historical episodes, buying URI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +34.2% after 12 months (median +26.0%), compared to +13.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 61% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +83.7% vs +26.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment URI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices URI would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where URI's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-22.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $604.27 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $696.67 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $822.44 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $1003.62 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $1287.18 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from URI's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
URI has crossed below its 200-week MA 23 times with an average 1-year return of +25.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1998 | Dec 1998 | 4 | 22.2% | -40.7% | +3999.7% |
| Mar 1999 | Apr 1999 | 4 | 6.6% | -50.5% | +3805.8% |
| May 1999 | May 1999 | 1 | 0.2% | -51.2% | +3694.7% |
| May 1999 | Jun 1999 | 4 | 9.8% | -42.6% | +3771.0% |
| Aug 1999 | Jun 2001 | 96 | 48.1% | -11.1% | +4369.6% |
| Aug 2001 | Feb 2002 | 26 | 25.2% | -33.5% | +4561.8% |
| Jun 2002 | Sep 2003 | 63 | 70.4% | -36.6% | +4871.9% |
| Sep 2003 | Oct 2003 | 5 | 7.4% | -0.1% | +6623.7% |
| Feb 2004 | Jul 2004 | 19 | 10.3% | +8.3% | +6079.4% |
| Aug 2004 | Nov 2004 | 12 | 14.1% | +28.7% | +7111.4% |
| Jan 2005 | Jan 2005 | 3 | 5.5% | +44.6% | +6165.1% |
| Nov 2007 | Oct 2010 | 153 | 86.2% | -73.2% | +4537.9% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 1 | 13.6% | +168.1% | +8167.5% |
| Jul 2015 | Oct 2015 | 13 | 12.8% | +20.9% | +1574.7% |
| Dec 2015 | Dec 2015 | 2 | 4.8% | +59.9% | +1504.3% |
| Jan 2016 | Jul 2016 | 28 | 36.1% | +77.0% | +1653.5% |
| Sep 2016 | Sep 2016 | 1 | 1.0% | +75.1% | +1334.6% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 4 | 6.6% | +91.6% | +1340.0% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 4 | 8.8% | +51.3% | +942.8% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 1 | 2.6% | +26.1% | +884.4% |
| Aug 2019 | Sep 2019 | 4 | 9.9% | +50.2% | +837.8% |
| Sep 2019 | Oct 2019 | 1 | 0.5% | +57.9% | +824.7% |
| Mar 2020 | May 2020 | 11 | 45.1% | +160.2% | +837.0% |
| Average | 20 | — | +25.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is URI below its 200-week moving average?
No. United Rentals Inc. (URI) is currently 61.4% above its 200-week moving average of $647.72. It would need to fall to $647.72 to cross below the line.
What is URI's 200-week moving average price?
United Rentals Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $647.72 as of 2026-07-17. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when URI drops below its 200-week moving average?
URI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +25.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 20 weeks on average.
Is URI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about URI as of 2026-07-17: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 75 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 2.9%. Return on equity is 28.2%. Price-to-book is 7.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does URI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 27.8 years, $100 invested in URI would have grown to $4725, compared to $1036 for the S&P 500. That's 14.9% annualized vs 8.8% for the index. URI has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does URI pay a dividend?
Yes. United Rentals Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 74.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-17