UPST
Upstart Holdings Inc. Financial Services - Fintech Investor Relations →
Upstart Holdings Inc. (UPST) closed at $25.98 as of 2026-03-20, trading 31.8% below its 200-week moving average of $38.09. This places UPST in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -31.0% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 12, UPST is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.92 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 226 weeks of data, UPST has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times. On average, these episodes lasted 38 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -59.5%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $2.5 billion, UPST is a mid-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 7.5%. The stock trades at 3.2x book value.
Share count has increased 20.6% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 4.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in UPST would have grown to $15, compared to $151 for the S&P 500. UPST has returned -34.8% annualized vs 9.9% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 1 open-market purchase totaling $3,922,800. Notably, these purchases occurred while UPST is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: UPST vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After UPST Crosses Below the Line?
Across 5 historical episodes, buying UPST when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -59.3% after 12 months (median -59.0%), compared to +5.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. After 24 months, the average return was -73.0% vs +3.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment UPST crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
UPST has crossed below its 200-week MA 5 times with an average 1-year return of +-59.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2021 | Nov 2024 | 153 | 87.7% | -89.0% | -81.3% |
| Dec 2024 | Feb 2025 | 8 | 18.3% | -30.4% | -62.0% |
| Feb 2025 | Jun 2025 | 17 | 47.8% | -59.2% | -61.0% |
| Nov 2025 | Nov 2025 | 3 | 13.4% | N/A | -32.7% |
| Jan 2026 | Ongoing | 8+ | 31.8% | Ongoing | -33.8% |
| Average | 38 | — | +-59.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UPST below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-03-20, Upstart Holdings Inc. (UPST) is trading 31.8% below its 200-week moving average of $38.09. The current price is $25.98.
What is UPST's 200-week moving average price?
Upstart Holdings Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $38.09 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when UPST drops below its 200-week moving average?
UPST has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -59.5%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 38 weeks on average.
Is UPST a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about UPST as of 2026-03-20: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 12 (oversold). Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 7.5%. Price-to-book is 3.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does UPST compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 4.4 years, $100 invested in UPST would have grown to $15, compared to $151 for the S&P 500. That's -34.8% annualized vs 9.9% for the index. UPST has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20