UPS
United Parcel Service Inc. Industrials - Logistics Investor Relations →
United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) closed at $100.28 as of 2026-09-11, trading 14.4% below its 200-week moving average of $117.17. This places UPS in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -12.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 42, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.92 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1352 weeks of data, UPS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times. On average, these episodes lasted 23 weeks. Historically, investors who bought UPS at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +1.3%.
With a market cap of $85.3 billion, UPS is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 6.6%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 29.6%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 5.7x book value.
Over the past 26 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in UPS would have grown to $356, compared to $847 for the S&P 500. UPS has returned 5.0% annualized vs 8.6% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -20.1% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: UPS vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After UPS Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying UPS when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +1.4% after 12 months (median +4.0%), compared to -3.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 53% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +18.4% vs +2.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment UPS crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices UPS would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where UPS's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-27.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $98.63 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $104.85 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $111.91 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $119.99 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $129.32 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | $1.66 | $1.76 | +5.8% |
| 2026-04-28 | $1.02 | $1.07 | +4.8% |
| 2026-01-27 | $2.20 | $2.38 | +8.1% |
| 2025-10-28 | $1.30 | $1.74 | +33.9% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from UPS's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
UPS has crossed below its 200-week MA 17 times with an average 1-year return of +1.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2000 | Nov 2000 | 4 | 3.2% | -13.3% | +263.9% |
| Dec 2000 | Jan 2001 | 6 | 5.9% | -2.8% | +274.7% |
| Feb 2001 | Feb 2002 | 55 | 15.0% | -4.5% | +259.8% |
| Feb 2003 | Apr 2003 | 7 | 5.3% | +24.6% | +263.2% |
| Jul 2006 | Aug 2006 | 2 | 3.9% | +13.4% | +192.6% |
| Feb 2007 | Apr 2007 | 7 | 2.0% | +3.5% | +180.9% |
| Apr 2007 | May 2007 | 3 | 1.0% | +5.5% | +174.5% |
| Nov 2007 | Nov 2007 | 3 | 1.4% | -24.7% | +172.8% |
| Dec 2007 | Feb 2008 | 6 | 6.2% | -15.1% | +182.0% |
| Feb 2008 | Mar 2008 | 3 | 2.5% | -39.4% | +171.3% |
| Apr 2008 | Apr 2008 | 1 | 0.9% | -22.0% | +168.8% |
| May 2008 | Mar 2010 | 96 | 40.8% | -15.3% | +171.1% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 3 | 5.7% | +34.0% | +212.1% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 7 | 8.4% | +24.5% | +40.0% |
| May 2019 | Jul 2019 | 9 | 9.0% | -2.3% | +36.0% |
| Jan 2020 | Jun 2020 | 20 | 13.7% | +54.7% | +28.9% |
| Sep 2023 | Ongoing | 157+ | 41.9% | Ongoing | -25.8% |
| Average | 23 | — | +1.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UPS below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-11, United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) is trading 14.4% below its 200-week moving average of $117.17. The current price is $100.28.
What is UPS's 200-week moving average price?
United Parcel Service Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $117.17 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when UPS drops below its 200-week moving average?
UPS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +1.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 23 weeks on average.
Is UPS a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about UPS as of 2026-09-11: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 42. Free cash flow yield is 6.6%. Return on equity is 29.6%. Price-to-book is 5.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does UPS compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 26 years, $100 invested in UPS would have grown to $356, compared to $847 for the S&P 500. That's 5.0% annualized vs 8.6% for the index. UPS has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does UPS pay a dividend?
Yes. United Parcel Service Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 654.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11