UPS
United Parcel Service Inc. Industrials - Logistics Investor Relations →
United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) closed at $95.86 as of 2026-03-20, trading 24.3% below its 200-week moving average of $126.56. This places UPS in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -23.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 46, indicating neutral momentum.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.6x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 1327 weeks of data, UPS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times. On average, these episodes lasted 21 weeks. Historically, investors who bought UPS at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +1.2%.
With a market cap of $81.4 billion, UPS is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 6.4%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 33.8%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 5.0x book value.
Over the past 25.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in UPS would have grown to $330, compared to $717 for the S&P 500. UPS has returned 4.8% annualized vs 8.0% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 3 open-market purchases totaling $1,477,377. Multiple insiders purchased within a 30-day window — a cluster buy pattern that historically signals management confidence in the company's prospects. Notably, these purchases occurred while UPS is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -20.1% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: UPS vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After UPS Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying UPS when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +1.1% after 12 months (median +1.0%), compared to -3.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 53% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +18.2% vs +2.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment UPS crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
UPS has crossed below its 200-week MA 17 times with an average 1-year return of +1.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2000 | Nov 2000 | 4 | 3.2% | -13.3% | +236.7% |
| Dec 2000 | Jan 2001 | 6 | 5.9% | -2.8% | +246.8% |
| Feb 2001 | Feb 2002 | 55 | 15.0% | -4.5% | +232.9% |
| Feb 2003 | Apr 2003 | 7 | 5.3% | +24.6% | +236.1% |
| Jul 2006 | Aug 2006 | 2 | 3.9% | +13.4% | +170.8% |
| Feb 2007 | Apr 2007 | 7 | 2.0% | +3.5% | +159.9% |
| May 2007 | May 2007 | 1 | 1.6% | +3.4% | +157.7% |
| Nov 2007 | Nov 2007 | 3 | 1.4% | -24.7% | +152.4% |
| Dec 2007 | Feb 2008 | 6 | 6.2% | -15.1% | +160.9% |
| Feb 2008 | Mar 2008 | 3 | 2.5% | -39.4% | +151.1% |
| Apr 2008 | Apr 2008 | 1 | 0.8% | -22.0% | +148.8% |
| May 2008 | Mar 2010 | 96 | 40.7% | -15.3% | +150.9% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 3 | 5.6% | +34.0% | +188.8% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 7 | 8.4% | +24.5% | +29.5% |
| May 2019 | Jul 2019 | 9 | 9.0% | -2.3% | +25.9% |
| Jan 2020 | Jun 2020 | 20 | 14.0% | +54.7% | +19.3% |
| Sep 2023 | Ongoing | 132+ | 41.9% | Ongoing | -31.4% |
| Average | 21 | — | +1.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UPS below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-03-20, United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) is trading 24.3% below its 200-week moving average of $126.56. The current price is $95.86.
What is UPS's 200-week moving average price?
United Parcel Service Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $126.56 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when UPS drops below its 200-week moving average?
UPS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +1.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 21 weeks on average.
Is UPS a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about UPS as of 2026-03-20: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 46. Free cash flow yield is 6.4%. Return on equity is 33.8%. Price-to-book is 5.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does UPS compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 25.5 years, $100 invested in UPS would have grown to $330, compared to $717 for the S&P 500. That's 4.8% annualized vs 8.0% for the index. UPS has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does UPS pay a dividend?
Yes. United Parcel Service Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 684.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20