UNP
Union Pacific Corporation Industrials - Railroads Investor Relations →
Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) closed at $301.75 as of 2026-07-17, trading 37.0% above its 200-week moving average of $220.17. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 31.6% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 76, UNP is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.07 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2380 weeks of data, UNP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 31 times. On average, these episodes lasted 11 weeks. Historically, investors who bought UNP at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +17.0%.
With a market cap of $179.2 billion, UNP is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.2%. Return on equity stands at 40.7%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 9.2x book value.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in UNP would have grown to $5931, compared to $3082 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.9% vs 10.7% for the index — confirming UNP as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -1.4% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: UNP vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After UNP Crosses Below the Line?
Across 19 historical episodes, buying UNP when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +24.8% after 12 months (median +29.0%), compared to +19.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 89% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +57.4% vs +34.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment UNP crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices UNP would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where UNP's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-23.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $238.15 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $248.98 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $260.84 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $273.89 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $288.32 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from UNP's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
UNP has crossed below its 200-week MA 31 times with an average 1-year return of +17.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1981 | Jun 1981 | 3 | 4.2% | -30.7% | +19986.2% |
| Jun 1981 | Jul 1981 | 1 | 2.4% | -37.5% | +19596.0% |
| Aug 1981 | Nov 1981 | 13 | 14.3% | -25.8% | +20020.1% |
| Dec 1981 | Jan 1983 | 55 | 38.9% | -14.3% | +19252.1% |
| Jan 1983 | Feb 1983 | 1 | 1.6% | +10.7% | +21273.7% |
| Feb 1983 | Mar 1983 | 1 | 0.7% | +3.5% | +21046.3% |
| Mar 1983 | Mar 1983 | 1 | 1.1% | -1.5% | +21130.4% |
| Dec 1983 | Dec 1983 | 1 | 2.1% | -11.0% | +20439.4% |
| Jan 1984 | Jan 1985 | 50 | 25.9% | +6.6% | +20549.8% |
| Oct 1987 | Oct 1987 | 2 | 8.5% | +20.5% | +16529.8% |
| Nov 1987 | Dec 1987 | 2 | 3.4% | +27.9% | +16709.5% |
| Oct 1990 | Oct 1990 | 1 | 0.1% | +55.4% | +11652.5% |
| Oct 1994 | Feb 1995 | 19 | 11.7% | +30.4% | +6725.5% |
| Feb 1995 | Mar 1995 | 2 | 0.7% | +36.3% | +6448.0% |
| Jun 1995 | Jun 1995 | 1 | 0.4% | +38.9% | +6330.5% |
| May 1998 | Jan 1999 | 34 | 21.6% | +25.2% | +4406.2% |
| Feb 1999 | Mar 1999 | 4 | 7.1% | -20.4% | +4151.2% |
| Aug 1999 | Oct 1999 | 9 | 9.7% | -18.3% | +3942.3% |
| Nov 1999 | Dec 2000 | 57 | 32.1% | +0.8% | +4080.6% |
| Sep 2001 | Oct 2001 | 3 | 4.9% | +30.0% | +4187.1% |
| Jul 2004 | Aug 2004 | 5 | 1.4% | +24.8% | +3284.7% |
| Nov 2008 | May 2009 | 27 | 32.8% | +42.3% | +1759.9% |
| Jun 2009 | Jul 2009 | 3 | 3.3% | +58.7% | +1661.4% |
| Dec 2015 | Apr 2016 | 20 | 16.2% | +36.5% | +393.5% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 3 | 3.0% | +39.0% | +361.9% |
| Jun 2016 | Jun 2016 | 1 | 2.0% | +34.0% | +356.2% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 2 | 12.3% | +73.4% | +176.8% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2023 | 2 | 2.3% | +31.9% | +71.3% |
| May 2023 | May 2023 | 1 | 1.5% | +23.0% | +68.3% |
| Apr 2025 | May 2025 | 5 | 3.2% | +19.7% | +47.9% |
| Sep 2025 | Sep 2025 | 1 | 0.2% | N/A | +41.8% |
| Average | 11 | — | +17.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UNP below its 200-week moving average?
No. Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) is currently 37.0% above its 200-week moving average of $220.17. It would need to fall to $220.17 to cross below the line.
What is UNP's 200-week moving average price?
Union Pacific Corporation's 200-week moving average is $220.17 as of 2026-07-17. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when UNP drops below its 200-week moving average?
UNP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 31 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +17.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 11 weeks on average.
Is UNP a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about UNP as of 2026-07-17: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 76 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 2.2%. Return on equity is 40.7%. Price-to-book is 9.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does UNP compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in UNP would have grown to $5931, compared to $3082 for the S&P 500. That's 12.9% annualized vs 10.7% for the index. UNP has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does UNP pay a dividend?
Yes. Union Pacific Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 184.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-17