UNH
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated Healthcare - Insurance Investor Relations →
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) closed at $379.09 as of 2026-09-11, trading 12.7% below its 200-week moving average of $434.06. This places UNH in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -8.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 42, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.23 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2138 weeks of data, UNH has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times. On average, these episodes lasted 24 weeks. Historically, investors who bought UNH at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +32.9%.
With a market cap of $340.3 billion, UNH is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 7.1%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 14.2%. The stock trades at 3.5x book value.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in UNH would have grown to $12326, compared to $3170 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 15.3% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming UNH as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -11.8% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: UNH vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After UNH Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying UNH when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +29.0% after 12 months (median +19.0%), compared to +20.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 59% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +65.7% vs +36.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment UNH crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices UNH would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where UNH's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-27.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $340.98 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $409.87 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $513.65 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $687.81 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $1040.64 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | $4.92 | $6.38 | +29.8% |
| 2026-04-21 | $6.60 | $7.23 | +9.5% |
| 2026-01-27 | $2.11 | $2.11 | +0.2% |
| 2025-10-28 | $2.81 | $2.92 | +4.0% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from UNH's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
UNH has crossed below its 200-week MA 18 times with an average 1-year return of +32.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1986 | Apr 1989 | 139 | 67.1% | -50.6% | +161066.8% |
| Jul 1996 | Nov 1996 | 17 | 21.8% | +56.3% | +11881.3% |
| Nov 1996 | Dec 1996 | 1 | 1.0% | +20.8% | +9103.0% |
| Jan 1997 | Jan 1997 | 1 | 2.3% | +11.3% | +9076.4% |
| Apr 1997 | Apr 1997 | 1 | 3.0% | +50.3% | +8813.0% |
| Oct 1997 | Nov 1997 | 1 | 4.3% | -7.1% | +8464.2% |
| Dec 1997 | Dec 1997 | 2 | 2.7% | -8.9% | +8239.1% |
| Jan 1998 | Jan 1998 | 2 | 3.2% | -6.1% | +8141.7% |
| Aug 1998 | Mar 1999 | 30 | 38.4% | +70.4% | +10817.7% |
| Apr 1999 | Apr 1999 | 2 | 6.8% | +30.4% | +8267.0% |
| Sep 1999 | Nov 1999 | 5 | 19.2% | +116.0% | +8564.2% |
| Nov 1999 | Dec 1999 | 5 | 1.9% | +122.2% | +7550.4% |
| Feb 2000 | Mar 2000 | 3 | 1.0% | +112.1% | +7634.4% |
| Feb 2008 | Oct 2010 | 140 | 63.9% | -39.9% | +924.2% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 1 | 2.5% | +79.7% | +104.2% |
| Apr 2024 | Apr 2024 | 1 | 0.3% | +38.7% | -9.3% |
| Feb 2025 | Mar 2025 | 2 | 4.1% | -36.3% | -15.6% |
| Apr 2025 | Ongoing | 74+ | 50.5% | Ongoing | -13.7% |
| Average | 24 | — | +32.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UNH below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-11, UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) is trading 12.7% below its 200-week moving average of $434.06. The current price is $379.09.
What is UNH's 200-week moving average price?
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated's 200-week moving average is $434.06 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when UNH drops below its 200-week moving average?
UNH has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +32.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 24 weeks on average.
Is UNH a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about UNH as of 2026-09-11: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 42. Free cash flow yield is 7.1%. Return on equity is 14.2%. Price-to-book is 3.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does UNH compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in UNH would have grown to $12326, compared to $3170 for the S&P 500. That's 15.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. UNH has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does UNH pay a dividend?
Yes. UnitedHealth Group Incorporated currently pays a dividend yield of 239.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11