TTD
The Trade Desk Inc. Technology - Digital Advertising Investor Relations →
The Trade Desk Inc. (TTD) closed at $21.15 as of 2026-05-15, trading 69.5% below its 200-week moving average of $69.42. This places TTD in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -66.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 39, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.06 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 455 weeks of data, TTD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times. On average, these episodes lasted 14 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TTD at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +73.1%.
With a market cap of $9.9 billion, TTD is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.7%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 16.7%, a solid level. The stock trades at 4.0x book value.
Management has been repurchasing shares, with a 3.0% reduction over three years. TTD passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 8.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TTD would have grown to $394, compared to $343 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 16.8% vs 15.0% for the index — confirming TTD as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 1 open-market purchase totaling $148,101,266. Notably, these purchases occurred while TTD is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 19.7% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: TTD vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After TTD Crosses Below the Line?
Across 6 historical episodes, buying TTD when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +75.4% after 12 months (median +71.0%), compared to +16.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 80% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +168.2% vs +38.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TTD crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices TTD would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where TTD's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $13.78 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $15.44 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $17.57 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $20.37 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $24.22 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Historical Touches
TTD has crossed below its 200-week MA 6 times with an average 1-year return of +73.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2018 | Feb 2018 | 1 | 1.3% | +241.5% | +394.2% |
| Jun 2022 | Aug 2022 | 7 | 10.7% | +65.1% | -54.3% |
| Oct 2022 | Feb 2023 | 15 | 18.6% | +71.0% | -54.3% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2023 | 1 | 0.1% | +52.9% | -60.4% |
| Feb 2025 | Jul 2025 | 21 | 39.6% | -65.2% | -70.6% |
| Aug 2025 | Ongoing | 41+ | 71.3% | Ongoing | -61.0% |
| Average | 14 | — | +73.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TTD below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-05-15, The Trade Desk Inc. (TTD) is trading 69.5% below its 200-week moving average of $69.42. The current price is $21.15.
What is TTD's 200-week moving average price?
The Trade Desk Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $69.42 as of 2026-05-15. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when TTD drops below its 200-week moving average?
TTD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +73.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 14 weeks on average.
Is TTD a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about TTD as of 2026-05-15: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 39. Free cash flow yield is 5.7%. Return on equity is 16.7%. Price-to-book is 4.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does TTD compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 8.8 years, $100 invested in TTD would have grown to $394, compared to $343 for the S&P 500. That's 16.8% annualized vs 15.0% for the index. TTD has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-15