TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Technology - Semiconductors Investor Relations →
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) closed at $433.24 as of 2026-09-11, trading 120.0% above its 200-week moving average of $196.94. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 119.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 56, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.92 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1461 weeks of data, TSM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times. On average, these episodes lasted 13 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TSM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +71.0%.
With a market cap of $2.2 trillion, TSM is a mega-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 32.5%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 40.0%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 88.7x book value.
TSM passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 28.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TSM would have grown to $27601, compared to $1216 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 22.2% vs 9.3% for the index — confirming TSM as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 24% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: TSM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After TSM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 18 historical episodes, buying TSM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +72.9% after 12 months (median +29.0%), compared to +9.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 83% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +76.3% vs +20.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TSM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices TSM would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where TSM's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-15.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $373.72 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $421.34 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $482.88 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $565.47 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $682.14 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | $3.89 | $4.31 | +10.9% |
| 2026-04-15 | $3.33 | $3.49 | +4.7% |
| 2026-01-15 | $2.98 | $3.14 | +5.5% |
| 2025-10-15 | $2.63 | $2.92 | +11.2% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from TSM's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
TSM has crossed below its 200-week MA 18 times with an average 1-year return of +71.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1998 | Nov 1998 | 8 | 29.1% | +229.9% | +23619.6% |
| Dec 1998 | Dec 1998 | 1 | 3.9% | +239.8% | +20322.3% |
| Dec 1998 | Jan 1999 | 1 | 2.4% | +290.1% | +19962.4% |
| Nov 2000 | Jan 2001 | 5 | 15.0% | +26.1% | +10121.3% |
| Feb 2001 | Apr 2001 | 7 | 13.3% | +12.4% | +8872.2% |
| May 2001 | Jun 2001 | 1 | 1.6% | +16.7% | +8989.5% |
| Jun 2001 | Jul 2001 | 5 | 5.1% | -0.9% | +9316.1% |
| Aug 2001 | Nov 2001 | 12 | 36.7% | -19.8% | +10661.3% |
| Jun 2002 | Jan 2005 | 139 | 62.4% | -18.4% | +8899.0% |
| Feb 2005 | May 2005 | 11 | 8.9% | +21.0% | +10409.9% |
| Sep 2005 | Sep 2005 | 1 | 1.9% | +28.2% | +10762.6% |
| Oct 2005 | Oct 2005 | 3 | 3.3% | +39.8% | +10831.1% |
| Sep 2008 | Mar 2009 | 25 | 26.0% | +29.1% | +8567.5% |
| Sep 2022 | Nov 2022 | 8 | 20.8% | +18.3% | +521.2% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 4 | 6.6% | +37.0% | +498.0% |
| May 2023 | May 2023 | 1 | 1.0% | +82.2% | +444.1% |
| Sep 2023 | Oct 2023 | 2 | 3.4% | +106.5% | +425.1% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 1 | 4.0% | +140.3% | +423.0% |
| Average | 13 | — | +71.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TSM below its 200-week moving average?
No. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) is currently 120.0% above its 200-week moving average of $196.94. It would need to fall to $196.94 to cross below the line.
What is TSM's 200-week moving average price?
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company's 200-week moving average is $196.94 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when TSM drops below its 200-week moving average?
TSM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +71.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 13 weeks on average.
Is TSM a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about TSM as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 56. Free cash flow yield is 32.5%. Return on equity is 40.0%. Price-to-book is 88.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does TSM compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 28.1 years, $100 invested in TSM would have grown to $27601, compared to $1216 for the S&P 500. That's 22.2% annualized vs 9.3% for the index. TSM has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does TSM pay a dividend?
Yes. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company currently pays a dividend yield of 95.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11