TSLA
Tesla Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Electric Vehicles Investor Relations →
Tesla Inc. (TSLA) closed at $422.24 as of 2026-05-15, trading 52.2% above its 200-week moving average of $277.34. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 55.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 53, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.01 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 780 weeks of data, TSLA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 15 times. On average, these episodes lasted 7 weeks. Historically, investors who bought TSLA at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +102.3%.
With a market cap of $1.6 trillion, TSLA is a mega-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 0.3%. Return on equity stands at 4.9%. The stock trades at 19.3x book value.
Share count has increased 18.6% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 15 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in TSLA would have grown to $21825, compared to $731 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 43.2% vs 14.2% for the index — confirming TSLA as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 1 open-market purchase totaling $999,959,042.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -6.3% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: TSLA vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After TSLA Crosses Below the Line?
Across 15 historical episodes, buying TSLA when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +99.3% after 12 months (median +51.0%), compared to +20.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 93% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +448.0% vs +43.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment TSLA crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices TSLA would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where TSLA's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $301.64 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $326.07 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $354.81 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $389.11 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $430.74 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Historical Touches
TSLA has crossed below its 200-week MA 15 times with an average 1-year return of +102.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2011 | Sep 2011 | 6 | 10.5% | +12.5% | +26028.7% |
| Sep 2011 | Oct 2011 | 1 | 1.9% | +20.0% | +25868.0% |
| Jan 2012 | Jan 2012 | 1 | 11.4% | +44.4% | +27691.1% |
| Jul 2012 | Aug 2012 | 1 | 0.3% | +406.1% | +23125.5% |
| Oct 2012 | Oct 2012 | 1 | 0.5% | +519.6% | +23032.2% |
| Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | 1 | 3.8% | +78.3% | +4093.3% |
| Oct 2016 | Dec 2016 | 6 | 7.0% | +60.6% | +3223.7% |
| Oct 2018 | Oct 2018 | 3 | 1.5% | -11.7% | +2317.9% |
| Mar 2019 | Oct 2019 | 31 | 32.4% | +61.6% | +2294.3% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 6 | 31.6% | +68.7% | +181.1% |
| Apr 2023 | May 2023 | 5 | 7.9% | -10.9% | +155.8% |
| Jan 2024 | Jul 2024 | 24 | 35.2% | +101.0% | +99.0% |
| Jul 2024 | Sep 2024 | 8 | 14.3% | +43.8% | +92.1% |
| Oct 2024 | Oct 2024 | 2 | 7.8% | +89.8% | +93.9% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 3 | 3.8% | +50.6% | +76.4% |
| Average | 7 | — | +102.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TSLA below its 200-week moving average?
No. Tesla Inc. (TSLA) is currently 52.2% above its 200-week moving average of $277.34. It would need to fall to $277.34 to cross below the line.
What is TSLA's 200-week moving average price?
Tesla Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $277.34 as of 2026-05-15. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when TSLA drops below its 200-week moving average?
TSLA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 15 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +102.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 7 weeks on average.
Is TSLA a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about TSLA as of 2026-05-15: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 53. Free cash flow yield is 0.3%. Return on equity is 4.9%. Price-to-book is 19.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does TSLA compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 15 years, $100 invested in TSLA would have grown to $21825, compared to $731 for the S&P 500. That's 43.2% annualized vs 14.2% for the index. TSLA has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-15